1. Bitcoin remains stuck below key cost-basis levels as long-term holders continue to sell.
2. On-chain data suggests resistance between $107K and $118K is limiting recovery potential.
3. Market volatility has calmed, but traders remain cautious amid soft demand and limited conviction.

Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range, unable to break through the key cost-basis levels that once supported bullish momentum. Despite brief recoveries, the market remains under pressure as long-term holders take profits and new demand struggles to offset selling.

According to the Glassnode report, Bitcoin rebounded from around $116K before slipping back near $113K, mirroring previous recovery patterns seen after all-time highs in mid-2024 and early 2025.

This pattern shows a clear trend: brief rallies face heavy selling, blocking sustained gains. The $107K–$118K zone remains strong resistance as long-term holders take profits. With the Fed staying hawkish and liquidity tightening, traders remain cautious.

Bitcoin’s struggle to stay above the $113.1K short-term cost basis signals fading momentum. Failure to close above it hints at weakening sentiment. If this persists, support may form near $88K, a level tied to past market resets.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Add Pressure as Confidence Slips

The sentiment of investors is experiencing further pressure in short-term investors, who are currently leaving the market with losses. The Short-Term Holders Net Unrealized Profit/Loss level has recently reached –0.05, indicating slight pressure but not to the same extent experienced during deep corrections in the market.

Meanwhile, the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change has become increasingly negative, with outflows of about 104,000 BTC on a monthly basis, reaching the highest level since mid-July. This signals large-scale distributions, with deep-pocket investors locking in funds in spite of declining market demand.

The transfers of funds to exchanges by long-term holders amount to about $293 million on average per day, more than twice the average observed in late 2024, and typically signal prolonged periods before any kind of rallies can be expected in the market.

Volatility Eases but Market Lacks Conviction

On the other hand, the off-chain data presents a calmer but careful market situation. The 30-day realized volatility for Bitcoin has declined to 42.6%, and the implied volatility has dropped because of the unwinding of protection by traders. The skew metrics, which indicated panic buying in protection for a crash, are back to normal.

However, current market positioning makes it more prone to rallies rather than stronger bullish rallies. There are calls for buyer purchases at $115K, but there are weaker purchases above $120K, signaling limited confidence in retesting all-time highs soon.

Also Read: Bitcoin at a Crossroad: Will It Break $116K Resistance or Fall Back?