• XRP’s monthly RSI indicates a late-stage bull distribution, not a confirmed bear market.
• Traditional moving averages fail to predict exponential asset growth; XRP could see further upside.
• $2.30 remains a critical resistance level; XRP may retest $1.88 if it fails to reclaim it.

XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing signs of a late-stage bull distribution rather than a confirmed macro bear market.

According to chart observations, the monthly RSI has only reached the 80 zone twice in XRP’s history, first in 2017, which preceded a significant bear market, and now in 2025.

Unlike 2017, the current RSI remains above 50 despite the bearish cross forming, suggesting that the market has not yet flipped to a full bear cycle.

EGRAG CRYPTO noted that the probability of the distribution phase continuing stands at roughly 60%, while the chance of a macro bear market starting remains at 40%.

The market would only confirm a bear trend if the monthly RSI falls below 50 and stays there. Until that happens, XRP could still see a final macro leg higher.

This highlights the current market’s cautious optimism and the importance of monitoring the monthly RSI closely for macro-level signals.

Also Read: XRP Price Surges as Spot ETFs See Record $164M Inflows

Exponential Growth Outpaces Traditional Averages

The use of moving averages has continued to generate debate among crypto traders. EGRAG CRYPTO was quite critical when it came to the use of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, particularly when trading cryptocurrencies like XRP and Bitcoin, since they experience rapid growth.

Moving averages always fall behind the changes in the price and work poorly on cryptocurrencies that experience rapid adoption in the form of exponential growth. History has proven the winner between the linear and exponential systems.

Conversely, people put forward the use of exponential regression curves, the logarithmic growth channel, and the large wave pattern.

This can all be attributed to past trends that seem to support this, considering that Bitcoin went below the 200-day moving average in the past, but it didn’t fall continuously.

The XRP chart seems to indicate the possibility of an upside, implying that the present doubts in the market are repeating themselves.

XRP Eyes Critical $2.30 Fibonacci Level

In the short term, XRP charts are concentrating on the $2.30 handle, an essential Fibonacci level. Analyst TARA pointed out that the cryptocurrency came pretty close, only one penny, and now the asset finds itself in a delicate situation.

Crossing the $2.30 barrier would increase the degree of market confidence and could possibly confirm the formation of a bottom, failing which would send it testing $1.88.

The Bitcoin action also has an effect on the XRP charts. When Bitcoin breaks through $90.7k, XRP could test the $2.30 resistance level. In the meantime, the ongoing movement is quite responsive to the RSI and macro alignment. 

Also Read: XRP Stabilizes at $2.20 With Bold Bullish Signals Across Key Indicators