Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research Alex Thorn has raised his probability estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 75 percent, up from 50 percent as recently as April. The shift follows a 15-to-9 Senate Banking Committee vote on May 14 that saw two Democrats cross party lines, producing the first meaningful bipartisan signal the bill has received. The updated assessment, published in Galaxy Research’s weekly brief on May 16, places the potential signing date in early August.

Senate Committee Vote Triggers a 25-Point Probability Shift

The catalyst for Thorn’s revised estimate was the character of the committee vote rather than the margin alone. Senators Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland joined all 13 committee Republicans to advance the bill. The Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin yield compromise, which resolved a structural dispute over whether stablecoin holders could earn interest, removed what Thorn had identified as the single largest threat to bipartisan momentum. Galaxy Research’s assessment described the committee vote as transforming Senate floor consideration from a theoretical outcome into the base case.

The updated timeline projects Senate Banking and Agriculture committee reconciliation in early June, Senate floor consideration by mid-June, final Senate passage before the end of June, House reconciliation through July, and a presidential signature the week of August 3. The White House has signaled interest in a more aggressive July 4 target. Congress has approximately nine weeks of Senate floor time before the August 10 recess, after which substantive legislation rarely advances in a midterm election cycle.

Other Forecasters Remain More Cautious

Not all observers share Thorn’s confidence. Kristin Smith, president of the Solana Policy Institute, placed passage probability at 60 percent. “In theory, we have everything we need,” Smith said in a May 18 interview. “A lot can go wrong.” Polymarket traders priced 2026 passage at 68 percent as of May 18, up from 46 percent at the start of the month but still below Thorn’s estimate. The gap between Thorn’s 75 percent and the prediction market’s 68 percent reflects differing assessments of procedural risk in the Senate floor process.

Senator Elizabeth Warren’s continued opposition on anti-money-laundering and ethics grounds remains a factor. The ethics language restricting senior officials’ digital asset holdings has created friction among some offices seeking carve-outs, which could complicate the final vote count. The bill still requires 60 Senate floor votes to clear a filibuster, followed by House reconciliation with the Digital Asset Clarity Act of 2025 and a presidential signature.

Potential Market and Industry Implications

Galaxy Research’s analysis situates the CLARITY Act alongside the companion GENIUS Act as foundational legislation for the U.S. digital asset market. Thorn described the bills as having the potential to establish conditions comparable to the Securities Act of 1933 in defining long-term regulatory infrastructure. The research cited projections that each dollar of stablecoin activity could generate two dollars of foreign inflows into U.S. banks and 31 cents of net new credit creation, though these estimates depend on adoption rates that remain uncertain.

The legislative push coincides with broader regulatory activity, including the SEC’s exploration of tokenized equity pilot programs and the CFTC’s assertion of federal jurisdiction over event contracts. If enacted, the CLARITY Act would establish the first comprehensive federal framework for classifying digital assets as either securities or commodities, a distinction that has been the subject of regulatory uncertainty since the industry’s early years.

Risks and Remaining Obstacles

The path from committee approval to a presidential signature involves multiple stages where the bill could stall or be materially altered. Senate floor amendments could reopen settled compromises, and reconciliation with the House version introduces additional variables. The nine-week legislative window before the August recess is tight for a bill of this complexity, and any procedural delay could push consideration past the effective deadline for the current congressional session. Critics of the bill, including Warren, argue that the legislation could expose the broader financial system to risks associated with under-regulated digital assets, a concern that may attract additional opposition as the bill approaches the Senate floor.

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