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Analysis: Prediction Market Bettors Miscalculated Dutch Election Results

Analysis: Prediction Market Bettors Miscalculated Dutch Election Results

2025-10-30

Both Polymarket and Kalshi traders ignored late polls showing D66 gaining ground, keeping Geert Wilders’ PVV priced as a sure thing until exit polls forced a repricing that erased millions in misplaced bets.

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