Key Takeaways

• – Bitcoin’s post-halving supply squeeze (74% illiquid, 75% unmoved ≥6 months) points to markedly tighter float—and a bullish setup for BTC price.
• – Transaction activity remains healthy (735K active addresses, 390–400 K tx/day) with NVT golden-cross at 1.51, signaling usage-backed valuation for BTC/USD.
• – Holder metrics (realized cap > $900B, SOPR ~1.03, MVRV ~2.3×) confirm strong conviction and modest profit-taking, reducing sell-side stress.
• – Exchange outflows, robust hashrate, and on-chain models (S2F ~$248–369K, NVT) converge on a 2025 bull peak in the $150–200K range, tempered by macro/regulatory risks.

---

The April 2024 halving cut Bitcoin’s issuance to ~900 BTC/day, unleashing a pronounced supply shock. Today, 74% of circulating BTC sits illiquid (not moved in ≥2 years), and ~75% remains dormant for over six months. This record hoarding tightens float, creating a potent bull backdrop for BTC/USD futures and BTC/USDT spot markets.

In this article, we’ll dissect every major on-chain metric—from active addresses and NVT to SOPR, MVRV, hashrate, exchange flows, and valuation models (Stock-to-Flow, NVT signal). By the end, you’ll understand why many foresee Bitcoin BTC reclaiming—or surpassing—its all-time highs by late 2025, and how you can position via BTC Spot, Bitcoin Futures, or BTC Staking.

2025 BTC Key Metrics Snapshot

---

Table of Contents

BTC Supply Dynamics

BTC Transaction Activity

Bitcoin Holder Behavior

Bitcoin Miner Behavior

BTC-Exchange Flows

On-Chain Valuation Models

BTC Historical Cycles & Patterns

On-Chain Expert & Institutional Forecasts

Competitive Landscape

---

BTC Supply Dynamics

Bitcoin’s supply picture has shifted dramatically post-halving:

Circulating vs. Illiquid Supply

• – Daily issuance halved to ~900BTC, slowing new supply.
• – Only 14.6M of ~19.8M BTC moved within two years—74% illiquid.

HODL Waves & Dormant Supply

• – ~75% of coins haven’t moved in ≥6 months.
• – 25% of supply aged 3–4 years, reflecting deep conviction.

Implication: Supply Squeeze

• – Halving-driven scarcity plus peak hoarding amplifies any demand surge.

This unprecedented retention underscores a drastic float reduction: with fewer BTC available to sell, even modest inflows—via BTC Spot purchases or Bitcoin Futures funding—can exert outsized upward pressure on BTC price.

Image Credit: Total Supply and New Supply (CryptoQuant)

---

BTC Transaction Activity

On-chain usage remains solid, not speculative:

Active Addresses

• – ~735K unique addresses active per day (30-day avg), around the 60th percentile historically.

Transaction Volume

• – 390–400K transactions daily, transferring ~$45B on-chain each day.
• – 2024 saw one-off protocol surges; current volumes reflect core financial use.

Network Demand Indicators (NVT)

• – NVT golden-cross at ~1.51 (vs. 2.2 bubble warning), confirming BTC price is backed by real value transfer, not mania.

Healthy on-chain activity supports Bitcoin BTC as a transactional asset, while also reinforcing digital gold narratives.

Image Credit: Total Bitcoin Transactions (CryptoQuant)

---

Bitcoin Holder Behavior

Investor conviction runs high:

Realized Capitalization

• – Exceeds $900 billion (new all-time high), marking total cost basis locked in by holders.

Profitability (SOPR & P/L Ratios)

• – SOPR ~1.03: coins moved are just above breakeven.
• – Short-term holders’ realized P/L near cycle highs—but still below extreme profit-taking levels.

MVRV Analysis

• – Market/Realized Value ~2.3×; long-term holders up +230%, short-term holders +13%.

Sell-Side Risk & Stress

• – Sell-Side Risk ratio elevated yet below 2017/21 peaks, signaling moderate profit-taking without panic.

Together, these metrics reveal holders are booking gains selectively, retaining core positions, and reducing downside pressure on Bitcoin price.

Image Credit: Bitcoin MVRV Ratio (CryptoQuant)

---

Bitcoin Miner Behavior

Mining economics shape BTC price dynamics:

Hashrate & Difficulty

• – Global hash rate tops 1 Zettahash/s, driving difficulty to new highs—testament to network security but compressing miner margins.

Miner Outflows & Revenues

• – 15K BTC sold by miners on April 7, 2025 (~$1.1B) amid price dips.
• – Daily miner revenue ~$39M, down ~30% from 2024.

Rising difficulty and reduced block rewards have prompted some capitulation, creating short-term selling pressure. However, weaker operations exit, leaving a more efficient network aligned with long-term BTC price support.

Image Credit: Bitcoin Miner Outflow (CryptoQuant)

---

BTC-Exchange Flows

Exchange metrics offer a window into supply liquidity:

Netflow Trends

• – Deeply negative 7-day MA netflows—the heaviest outflows since early 2023.

Exchange Reserves

• – Binance reserves fell from ~595K to 544.5K BTC in Apr–May 2025 (≈51 K withdrawn).

Liquidity Implications

• – Withdrawals far exceed deposits → tighter available supply, higher short-term volatility risk.

Large institutional and whale holdings moving to cold storage reduce spot market liquidity, meaning fresh BTC spot or futures buying can push BTC/USD Futures and BTC/USDT Spot trading pairs sharply higher.

Image Credit: Bitcoin Exchange Reserve (CryptoQuant)

---

On-Chain Valuation Models

Quantitative frameworks help contextualize BTC price levels:

Stock-to-Flow (S2F)

• – Model price: ~$248K (463 d avg) to ~$369K (10 d avg).
• – Limitations: has underpredicted recent prices and may lose accuracy post-2021.

Network Value to Transactions (NVT)

• – Golden-cross at ~1.51 confirms current valuations are supported by transaction activity, not “bubble” behavior.

Other Signals

• – Mayer Multiple (~1.1–1.2), Pi Cycle, MVRV Z-Score rebound, Value Days Destroyed (VDD) all point to a healthy bull phase.

Collectively, on-chain models argue that Bitcoin price still has room to run before fundamental overheating.

Image Credit: Stock-to-Flow Ratio (CryptoQuant)

---

BTC Historical Cycles & Patterns

Bitcoin’s ~4-year cycle is driven by halvings:

Four-Year Cycle Framework

• – Post-halving bull runs: 2013, 2017, 2021 (peaks ~1–1.5 years after halving).

2025 Mid-Cycle Correction

• – MVRV Z-Score bottomed ~1.43; VDD in “green zone” as long-term holders accumulate.

Timing the Next Peak

• – If history repeats, Q3/Q4 2025 may mark the cycle high—though macro and regulatory factors could accelerate or delay the top.

Past cycles suggest the current correction from ~$100K to ~$75K early 2025 is a healthy pause, not a cycle end, setting the stage for the next leg up.

---

On-Chain Expert & Institutional Forecasts

Most on-chain experts and institutional strategists anchor their 2025 Bitcoin price targets in the backdrop of tightening supply metrics and mounting demand signals.

• – Standard Chartered points to a $200 K finish by year-end, underpinned by its “digital gold” thesis and continued spot ETF inflows that are diversifying into BTC/USD Futures and BTC/USDT Spot markets.
• – Bernstein (Goldman) similarly forecasts ~$200K, citing accelerating institutional adoption and the momentum of Bitcoin Futures and BTC Spot products as cornerstones of growing market depth.
• – Meanwhile, VanEck’s Michael Sigel outlines a ~$180K cycle apex within 2025, leveraging a dual-peak model that factors in mid-cycle corrections and subsequent rallies tracked in on-chain MVRV and SOPR data.
• – PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model remains a staple, forecasting $160K by year-end based on Bitcoin’s halving-driven scarcity rhythm.
• – On derivatives platforms, Kalshi reflects market-implied odds—43% probability of BTC price exceeding $150K—which aligns with open interest trends in Bitcoin Futures and funding rate signals.
• – Finally, GLBX (CryptoQuant) flags robust long-term holder accumulation as a leading bullish indicator, reinforcing that supply hoarding on exchanges is tightening float and bolstering the BTC price outlook.

Together, this cohort of forecasts—ranging from $150K to $200K—mirrors the convergence of on-chain scarcity, growing Bitcoin Spot and Futures liquidity, and emerging yield opportunities like BTC Staking.

---

Competitive Landscape

As Bitcoin’s 2025 rally gains steam, investors weigh BTC against a range of assets:

• – Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Altcoins (Ethereum, Solana) offer smart-contract utility but carry higher protocol risk. Bitcoin BTC’s market cap, security, and track record make it the premier digital-gold store of value.
• – Bitcoin vs. Gold & Precious Metals: Gold and silver yield little and are bulky. Bitcoin’s programmable scarcity, portability, and liquidity—via BTC Spot or Futures—offer a more dynamic safe-haven.
• – Bitcoin vs. Equities & Bonds: Stocks and bonds tie to economic cycles and offer limited upside. Bitcoin’s low correlation and growth potential make it a compelling diversifier, especially through spot ETFs or futures.
• – Crypto Yield Products: Liquid staking derivatives add yield but entail smart-contract risk. Centralized options like XT Earn deliver regulated interest on BTC or USDT.
• – Futures & Derivatives: Futures provide leverage and hedging, but incur rollover costs and margin risks—spot or staking yields often suit long-term holders better.

---

Final Thoughts

Record illiquidity and historic HODL behavior have transformed Bitcoin BTC into an exceptionally scarce asset post-halving. Robust on-chain usage, strong holder metrics, and diminishing exchange reserves all point to a continued bull cycle through 2025. While macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory shifts could introduce volatility, the supply squeeze versus demand uptrend suggests Bitcoin price is poised to revisit—and likely exceed—prior highs by year-end. Whether via BTC Spot, Bitcoin Futures, or BTC Staking, market participants have multiple avenues to capture this next leg up.

---

FAQs About Bitcoin

What drives Bitcoin price post-halving?

Halvings cut new supply, amplifying scarcity when demand holds or rises. On-chain metrics (illiquid supply, HODL waves) track this tightening effect.

How do on-chain models like Stock-to-Flow predict BTC price?

Stock-to-Flow links scarce supply to value, projecting mid-six-figure prices post-halving. It’s a useful baseline, but accuracy has varied since 2021.

What is the NVT ratio and why does it matter?

NVT (Network Value to Transactions) measures market cap relative to transaction volume. A lower NVT (e.g. 1.51) signals valuations supported by real usage, not speculation.

How can I gain yield on my Bitcoin holdings?

Options include BTC Staking via liquid-staking tokens, DeFi lending, or centralized products like XT Earn, which provide flexible and fixed-term interest plans.

Should I trade BTC Spot or Bitcoin Futures?

Spot trading offers direct ownership and security, while futures allow leverage and hedging. Choose spot for long-term accumulation, futures for tactical positioning.

When might Bitcoin hit $200K?

Consensus points to Q3/Q4 2025 as the probable window—driven by post-halving cycles, ETF inflows, and sustained hoarding—but macro/regulatory factors could accelerate or delay the peak.

---

Quick Links

• – A Half-Million Reasons to Trade: Your Complete Guide to the $500,000 MNT × XT Carnival
• – May Economic Calendar for Crypto Traders
• – 3 Defining Crypto Narratives for 2025: Layer-2, RWAs & DePINs Explained

---

About XT.COM

Founded in 2018, XT.COM now serves nearly 7.8 million registered users, over 1,000,000+ monthly active users and 40+ million users in the ecosystem. Our comprehensive trading platform supports 800+ high-quality tokens and 1000+ trading pairs. XT.COM crypto exchange supports a rich variety of trading, such as spot trading, margin trading, and futures trading together with an aggregated NFT marketplace. Our platform strives to cater to our large user base by providing a secure, trusted and intuitive trading experience.