Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has surged from 15 million to 15.8 million BTC over the past two days, according to CryptoQuant data highlighted by on-chain analyst Darkfost. However, the apparent accumulation signal may be misleading, as a significant portion of the increase stems from a Coinbase internal wallet transfer in November 2025 that has now crossed the six-month threshold used to classify long-term holdings.

How Coinbase’s Wallet Shuffle Distorted LTH Metrics

The spike in long-term holder supply traces back to November 22-23, 2025, when Coinbase moved approximately 800,000 BTC, valued at roughly $70 billion at the time, between its own internal wallets. The transfer was a routine maintenance operation, but it had far-reaching consequences for on-chain analytics. By destroying old unspent transaction outputs and creating new ones, the shuffle effectively reset the age clock on a substantial portion of Bitcoin supply tracked across multiple data platforms.

As Darkfost noted on the X platform, the movement affected “UTXO-based metrics, age and value cohorts, STH/LTH cost basis, realized value, volumes, and more.” Saturday, May 23, marked exactly six months since the transfer, which means the shuffled coins have now automatically transitioned from short-term holder to long-term holder classification under standard on-chain frameworks. The result is a mechanical reclassification rather than a reflection of genuine investor behavior.

Why the Distinction Matters for Market Participants

Under normal circumstances, a rise in long-term holder supply is interpreted as a bullish signal. It suggests that experienced investors are accumulating and holding with conviction, reducing the available liquid supply and tightening market conditions. Several on-chain models, including realized cap distributions and supply dormancy indicators, rely on LTH classification to gauge market cycle positioning.

When the underlying data is distorted by large-scale custodial operations, however, these models can produce misleading readings. Market participants and analysts who rely on LTH supply growth as a demand indicator may overestimate current accumulation trends if they do not account for the Coinbase-related data anomaly. Darkfost cautioned that traders should “exercise caution when making decisions with this on-chain signal.”

Bitcoin Faces Resistance at Short-Term Holder Cost Basis

In a separate analysis, Darkfost identified the short-term holder cost basis, currently sitting just above $80,000, as the next major resistance level for Bitcoin. The metric reflects the average acquisition price of coins held for less than six months and often acts as a pivot between bullish and bearish market phases. Bitcoin is trading at approximately $76,490 as of May 24, meaning it remains below this threshold.

According to Darkfost, short-term holders appear to be selling at a loss rather than waiting for a recovery, which reinforces the resistance at their cost basis. A sustained move above $80,000 would be needed to shift market structure back toward a recovery trajectory, as it would bring the majority of recent buyers back into profit and reduce sell pressure from underwater positions.

Risks and Uncertainties

The primary risk to interpreting the current data landscape is that additional custodial wallet movements from other major exchanges could further distort on-chain metrics in ways that are not immediately apparent. Coinbase is not the only exchange that periodically consolidates wallets, and similar operations by other platforms could introduce additional noise into supply classification models. On-chain analytics platforms have acknowledged the challenge but have not yet standardized a methodology for filtering out custodial transfers from organic holder behavior.

From a price perspective, Bitcoin’s position below both the short-term holder cost basis at $80,000 and longer-term moving averages suggests that the recovery path faces meaningful headwinds. While reduced liquid supply could support prices in the medium term, macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and broader risk sentiment remain significant variables that could override on-chain signals in either direction.

About XT Exchange

Founded in 2018, XT Exchange is a leading global digital asset trading platform, serving over 12 million registered users across more than 200 countries and regions, with an ecosystem reach exceeding 40 million. XT Exchange supports 1,300+ tokens and 1,300+ trading pairs, offering a wide range of trading options, including spot, margin, and futures, alongside a secure RWA (Real World Assets) marketplace. Guided by the vision “Xplore Crypto, Trade with Trust,” the platform strives to provide a secure, trusted, and intuitive trading experience.

Join the XT Exchange Community: X (Twitter) | Telegram | Facebook | LinkedIn | Medium | YouTube

Disclaimer: XT Exchange reserves the right, at its sole discretion, to modify, amend, or cancel this announcement at any time for any reason without prior notice.