After AI Pullback and Crypto Crash: Can December Deliver a Year-End Rally?
November began with confidence as traders expected a smooth year-end, AI stocks led global risk appetite, and crypto sat near record highs. Then everything flipped. A 43-day U.S. shutdown cut off data, central banks sent mixed signals, China’s property stress resurfaced, and AI equities finally lost momentum.
Bitcoin and Ethereum traded like high-beta tech, not independent assets. Beneath the turbulence, capital rotation revealed two clear winners: steady institutional demand for RWA tokenization and a sharp breakout in privacy coins. As December begins, central bank decisions, AI regulation, and sector flows will decide whether markets recover or reset. For XT users, selectivity beats speed.
TL;DR for Busy Readers
- November brought a rare shock mix: a 43-day U.S. data blackout, conflicting Fed signals, renewed China property stress, a more hawkish Japan, and the first real setback for AI equities.
- BTC and ETH posted their weakest month in over a year, behaving like high-beta tech as global risk sentiment deteriorated rather than reacting to crypto-specific issues.
- RWA tokens held their uptrend with new regulatory momentum, while privacy coins delivered one of 2025’s sharpest rallies, briefly outperforming major assets.
- December is a crossroads shaped by central banks, macro data, AI policy, and crypto sector rotation.
- XT users should favor disciplined leverage, macro awareness, and selective exposure to RWA and privacy over broad chasing.
December 2025 Macro Calendar (Key Market Dates)
| Date (UTC) | Event | Why It Matters |
| Dec 6 | U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls | First full jobs data post-shutdown; key for Fed expectations and risk sentiment. |
| Dec 10 | U.S. CPI | Critical inflation check. Soft CPI supports cuts; hot CPI pressures all risk assets. |
| Dec 31 | U.S. FOMC Meeting, PPI | The main December decision sets the tone for year-end trading and early 2026. |
| Dec 16–20 | US Jobs, Inflation, Global PMIs | First complete macro read since the shutdown; drives short-term flows in crypto and equities. |
| Dec 18 | BoE MPC Meeting | First chance for a BoE cut; impacts GBP and Europe-linked sentiment. |
| Dec 18–19 | BOJ Policy Meeting | A potential hike could reprice global yields and affect BTC/ETH correlation. |
| Dec 31 | FOMC Year-End Communication | Final Fed signals of 2025; guide positioning into January. |
| All month | Rebalancing & Tax Flows | Year-end flows can amplify volatility across BTC, ETH, RWA, and privacy coins. |
What November Told Us: Macro, AI, and Risk Sentiment
Markets entered November with strong momentum. AI stocks were still the stars of 2025, Bitcoin had recently hit all-time highs near 126,000 dollars, and Ethereum was trading close behind. Many positioned for a smooth pivot from global tightening to rate cuts and a year-end rally.
Then the U.S. went partially dark.
A 43-day federal government shutdown froze key data releases — no October jobs report, no CPI, and far fewer anchors for the Fed or markets. The Beige Book pointed to flat activity, softer labor markets, and weaker consumption, but without hard data, it was difficult to judge the economy’s true cooling pace.
The Fed sounded cautiously dovish, but divided.
Fed messaging turned cautiously dovish but remained divided. After cutting rates to 3.75–4.00 percent in late October, officials spent November sending mixed signals. John Williams talked about room to ease “in the near term”, while the October minutes showed others still worried about inflation. Markets continued to price in a December cut, but confidence stayed fragile without fresh data.
Europe offered relative stability.
Europe was calmer. The ECB held its deposit rate at 2 percent, emphasizing that policy was “in a good place” with inflation near target. The BoE looked more likely to move: its 6 November decision to hold at 4 percent passed on a narrow 5–4 vote, and a tighter UK budget increased the odds of easing at the 18 December meeting.
Japan turned into a genuine wildcard.
Japan became November’s wildcard. The BOJ kept its rate at 0.5 percent but shifted its tone sharply. Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at a possible December hike, citing rising wages and sustained inflation.
Simultaneously, new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi unveiled a 21.3 trillion yen stimulus package. The combination pushed JGB yields to their highest levels since 2008 and raised concerns that Japan could become a global shock amplifier.
China remained a drag, not a driver.
China stayed a drag. PMIs remained in contraction, prices stayed in deflation, and property fears resurfaced when China Vanke sought to delay bond repayment. With no major stimulus and renewed crypto tightening, sentiment remained weak.
AI stocks finally blinked.
After months of relentless outperformance, AI-linked equities hit turbulence. Nvidia delivered strong earnings but failed to rally, Palantir dropped more than 30 percent from its highs, and the Nasdaq slipped even as broader indices held up. Valuation red flags — stretched ratios, rising downside hedging costs — reminded traders that even dominant narratives can correct.
What November Told Us About Crypto: BTC, ETH, RWA, Privacy, and AI in One Picture
Crypto felt all of this. But,
- BTC/ETH = macro-driven correction, not structural failure;
- AI tokens = temporarily paused but fundamentally intact;
- RWA = steady institutional inflows;
- Privacy Coin = high-volatility breakout narrative.
Crypto entered November near record highs, boosted by strong AI-sector sentiment, a weakening dollar, and expectations of a clean path toward global rate cuts. But when macro turbulence hit, Bitcoin and Ethereum reacted like high-beta tech instead of independent assets. BTC fell more than 21 percent through the month, briefly touching the high-80,000s after starting above 110,000 dollars, while ETH slid into the low-3,000s. More than 8 billion dollars in long and short liquidations amplified each move as leveraged positions unwound across the board.
This was not a crypto-specific collapse. It was a macro-driven repricing triggered by the U.S. data blackout, mixed Fed communication, China’s renewed property stress, and the first real wobble in AI equities all year. Gold surged toward record highs, while BTC traded almost tick-for-tick with the Nasdaq. The message was clear: in a stress test, crypto still trades like a growth asset rather than a defensive hedge.
Yet beneath this volatility, sector rotations told a different story.
RWA: The Most Stable Narrative of the Month
RWA tokens were one of the few segments that held their ground despite broader weakness.
The on-chain RWA market cap climbed to around 36 billion dollars (up 5 percent month-on-month), and unique holders increased more than 11 percent. Institutional signals strengthened:
- Ondo Finance gained EU-wide approval to offer tokenized equities across the entire EEA.
- Centrifuge released institutional tools that pushed tokenized credit and energy assets past 1.3 billion dollars.
- MakerDAO’s Sky Savings continued drawing billions into RWA-backed yield.
- Banks in Singapore, Korea, and Europe expanded pilots for tokenized deposits, treasury bills, and stablecoin-based settlement.
For investors, RWAs behaved like fundamentals-driven assets: slow, steady, and resilient. Rate-cut expectations in December could reinforce this trend. Fortunately, XT has carved out a dedicated RWA Zone:
Traders can express this narrative through spot pairs such as UPAL, SZRR, GSSG, GCF, MINT, and USTBL, which track tokenized private credit, real-estate-linked assets, and yield products. These are structurally closer to “steady carry plus token upside” than to meme-coin blow-offs, which fits the RWA role as a quieter, fundamentals-anchored sector.
Privacy Coins: November’s Most Explosive Rotation
In stark contrast, privacy coins became the month’s breakout. Zcash surged more than 700 percent from late September, Monero and Dash logged triple-digit moves, and at peak, privacy tokens briefly captured over 6 percent of total crypto trading volume.
Three forces drove the rotation:
- 1. Real usage growth — Shielded ZEC addresses and privacy-pool activity continued rising.
- 2. Narrative momentum — As BTC and ETH weakened, traders chased the “digital cash” thesis.
- 3. Macro and ideology — Heightened surveillance debates and high-profile asset seizures revived interest in censorship-resistant money.
The regulatory environment remains mixed. U.S. sanctions on Tornado Cash were lifted quietly, yet Europe is moving toward restricting anonymity-enhancing coins by 2027. The rally may cool, but the narrative is alive.
AI Tokens and L2s: A Pause After a Year of Euphoria
AI-linked cryptocurrencies and L2s tied to decentralized compute or data followed the equity narrative. In November, the once-unstoppable AI trade finally blinked: Nvidia’s strong earnings failed to produce a breakout, Palantir and other AI names corrected, and multiple equity strategists started questioning whether the “everything AI” rally had overshot fundamentals.
On-chain, that translated into:
- Slower inflows to the AI token basket
- Corrections in infrastructure names like Bittensor (TAO), Fetch.ai (FET), Render (RNDR), and NEAR, which remain core holdings in most AI-sector watchlists
- A visible rotation of speculative capital away from AI narratives and into privacy coins during November’s most volatile weeks
The good news: nothing structurally changed. Demand for decentralized compute, training-data markets, and AI-agent infrastructure is still expanding. But after November, these assets trade with a clearer correlation to AI equity volatility.
Where BTC and ETH Stand Heading Into December
Despite the selloff, the structural bull case remains intact:
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved earlier in the quarter, are long-term demand drivers.
- Political momentum in the U.S. is friendlier than in previous cycles.
- Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade and potential ETH spot ETFs in 2026 support multi-year growth trajectories.
Most analysts now watch 75,000–80,000 dollars as a structural support zone for BTC and the high-2,000s for ETH. A dovish Fed or soft CPI could trigger a December relief rally. A hawkish surprise, BOJ shock, or another China headline could deepen the drawdown.
Scenarios and Trading Playbook for December
With macro, AI, BTC/ETH, RWA, and privacy all in motion, December can still break bullish or bearish.
Bullish scenario:
- The Fed delivers a 25-bp cut and signals confidence in disinflation.
- The BoE follows with its first easing move.
- The BOJ avoids a surprise hike.
- China stabilizes property-sector headlines.
Result: Weaker dollar, lower risk premia, and a year-end rebound in BTC, ETH, and selective altcoins.
Bearish scenario:
- The Fed turns hawkish or delays cuts.
- The BOJ tightens aggressively.
- China faces renewed developer distress.
Result: Year-end de-risking could pressure BTC toward 75,000 dollars and ETH near 2,500 dollars, with high-beta sectors hit hardest.
XT trader playbook:
- Anchor around FOMC, BoE, BOJ decisions.
- Keep leverage modest into event risk.
- Treat BTC 75,000–80,000 and ETH high-2,000s as zones.
- Size RWA, privacy, and AI positions according to volatility and narrative strength.
Quick Links
- XT RWA Zone Goes Live: What the Community Learned From the Latest AMA
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- How to Earn 10% on Your USDT Savings Consistently with XT Earn
About XT.COM
Founded in 2018, XT.COM is a leading global digital asset trading platform, now serving over 12 million registered users across more than 200 countries and regions, with an ecosystem traffic exceeding 40 million. XT.COM crypto exchange supports 1,300+ high-quality tokens and 1,300+ trading pairs, offering a wide range of trading options including spot trading, margin trading, and futures trading , along with a secure and reliable RWA (Real World Assets) marketplace. Guided by the vision “Xplore Crypto, Trade with Trust,” our platform strives to provide a secure, trusted, and intuitive trading experience.
