New BTC Drop Hits 100K Signal Zone as Volatility Rises Toward 52%
- BTC trades below the short term holder cost basis as the bands slope down and show rising risk in the current structure.
- Supply in profit drops across several ranges as the chart shows fewer coins holding strong gains during the correction phase.
- Futures open interest sits near 30 billion while implied volatility rises past 47 percent and moves toward the 52 percent zone.
Bitcoin trades below several key short-term holder cost basis bands as risk levels rise across multiple indicators while futures open interest holds near 30 billion and implied volatility climbs toward the 52 percent zone during the broader correction. The four charts display shifts in cost basis behavior, supply distribution, futures positioning, and volatility structure.
Short-Term Holder Risk Bands Show BTC Below Core Levels
The short-term holder cost basis model shows four bands that track market heat. The blue line marks the main cost basis for recent buyers. The yellow and red bands represent higher-risk zones, while the green band shows the cooled region.
BTC trades under the blue band as the lines slope downward. The bands compress slightly as the market weakens during the recent decline. The chart shows the same pattern during earlier corrections where price moved through all bands before stabilizing.
The red overheated band sits near the 120K to 140K zone on the right side. Price remains far below that region, which shows a shift away from high-risk positioning. The green cooled band stays near the 70K area as the correction unfolds across several weeks.
The model signals rising pressure for short-term holders who bought at higher levels. Previous cycles show this structure during drawdowns before long consolidation phases.
Profit and Loss Supply Structure Shifts During the Decline
The supply by profit and loss chart displays several color groups that mark holding performance. Darker red represents heavy losses above negative 78 percent, while green groups represent stronger gains.
The recent region shows far fewer green zones compared with earlier peaks. That shows fewer coins within high profit ranges as the price moves lower. Yellow zones increase, which represent holders near even value or mild gain.
Large red regions appear during the 2022 and early 2023 correction. The new decline shows milder reds but still marks clear pressure on parts of the supply. The BTC price line sits in the upper range of the chart, yet below the peak formed earlier.
The chart reflects how supply shifts when the price weakens. Holders move between groups rapidly during volatility spikes. These shifts match earlier phases where price searched for a stable structure before new trends formed.
Futures Positioning and Volatility Trend Mark Broader Pressure
The futures open interest perpetual chart shows open positions across all exchanges. The value stays near 30 billion during November 2025. Price trades near 90K as open interest holds firm despite the correction.
Open interest peaked near 45 billion during earlier highs. It declined sharply during the April 2025 drop and then rebuilt through mid-year. The latest move shows contraction, but not the severe washouts seen in earlier pullbacks.
The implied volatility chart shows a strong rise toward the 52 percent level. Volatility held near 35 percent during early November but climbed as prices dropped. The volatility line now sits above the price line, which signals stronger swings.
Earlier periods show similar setups before strong directional moves. The chart displays repeated volatility expansions near turning points.
The key question is whether BTC forms a base near the lower STH bands or continues following the rising volatility path.
