• The AVAX chart signals a potential accumulation of smart money near $8.72, indicating an approaching deep discount buying zone.
• The price structure exhibits declining momentum within bear market lows, indicating a long-term support range of under $12.
• Analysts label the region between $8 and $12 as the smart money zone aligned with prior bottom structures from 2024.

Avalanche’s native token, AVAX, is approaching a key technical level that traders describe as the “deep discount zone.”  According to on-chain charts and trader commentary, this is where institutional buyers typically accumulate during bear market phases.  At the time of analysis, AVAX trades near $16.37, showing a weekly decline of nearly 13% on Binance.

Deep Discount and Market Context

The chart shows a steady decline from the 2024 peak of approximately $68, with Fibonacci retracement levels indicating key support levels. The 0.786 level, which coincides near $8.72, marks the lower bound of what analysts refer to as the “deep discount zone.” Historically, this range has served as a turning point during prolonged market drawdowns.

The graphic identifies three central regions: Deep Discount, Support, and Smart Money Buy Zone. These zones highlight where long-term investors might find favorable risk-to-reward ratios. The chart projects that if AVAX holds the $8–$12 area, the token could rebound toward mid-2026 price targets.

Smart Money Buy Zone and Technical Framework

Crypto analyst Carl Moon stated that AVAX is entering “where smart money buys.”
He noted that near bear market lows, risk-to-reward ratios become more attractive for accumulation. This observation aligns with the historical behavior seen during previous crypto cycles when institutional entries preceded recoveries.

The chart also shows projected accumulation patterns forming a “W” structure between $8.72 and $12, suggesting gradual positioning. The potential upside from this zone could extend toward $28, as indicated by the green recovery path plotted on the chart. The setup mirrors accumulation structures observed across several altcoins during late-stage corrections.

Investor Focus and Market Sentiment

Community reactions to Moon’s statement reflect cautious optimism. While some traders identify the current levels as strategic entry zones, others warn against impulsive buying without verification. Social comments emphasize the importance of due diligence, noting that double reward offers and trading incentives should not influence decisions.

Market observers argue that institutional accumulation often coincides with a decline in retail participation. The “smart money buy zone” narrative may thus appeal to investors tracking long-term positions rather than short-term gains. Whether the current structure confirms a true market bottom remains open to question — can AVAX sustain this level long enough to spark recovery?

The technical setup, built on Fibonacci confluence and historical cycle behavior, positions AVAX between a potential capitulation low and the start of accumulation. The next few weeks may determine whether the “deep discount” area evolves into a confirmed smart money entry or a prolonged consolidation phase.