XRP traded near $1.92 on January 28 as a long-term technical chart shared by EGRAG CRYPTO drew attention to a rising channel that has guided the asset through multiple market cycles. 

The update highlighted how XRP continues to respect diagonal support and resistance that behave similarly to a logarithmic regression structure rather than random trendlines.

Historical data from the previous cycles support this notion. In 2017, the price of XRP ranged from the bottom of the channel to the top of the channel and then surged past the top of the channel. In that cycle, the price appreciated by around 677% after touching the top of the channel.

Source: X

Currently, XRP is trading above the middle part of the channel after a strong surge upwards. In this setup, the region around 4.5 in the upper channel is regarded as a strong core level if the pattern remains valid.

If the pattern remains valid, then prices are likely to reach 10 and 27, corresponding to the past expansion zones at previous cycle peaks. The full macro move up to 200, based on the repetition of the 2017 pattern, is a low-probability tail scenario.

Channel Structure Signals Accumulation Rather Than Trend Failure

The long-term chart of XRP/USD illustrates a cycle. During the positive phase, the price rises from the lower boundary of the channel to the resistance line and then remains flat for a period. The current market behavior also follows the same cycle.

The corrections remain within the channel, and there has been no strong breach below the median line. This indicates that the buyers are absorbing the previous gains, and it is not a strong indication of a strong trend reversal.

Even with the constant fluctuations, the larger picture suggests that the price will continue to rise as long as the token forms higher lows in the rising channel. The gray lines in the channel represent the moving support and resistance.

Short-Term Indicators Keep XRP Range-Bound Near $2

The short-term market data from TradingView reveals that XRP is still below the psychological level of $2. The price is encountering resistance from the 20-day EMA and the mid-Bollinger Band, which is just below $2.

On the other hand, the support comes from the lower Bollinger Band ranging from $1.81 to $1.82. Momentum indicators remain cautious. The RSI is around 44 to 45, which is below the middle level and indicates weak bullish momentum and no oversold condition.

The MACD remains below its signal line, and the histogram bars remain negative, which indicates that the downside momentum is still there. On the daily chart, XRP continues to form lower highs.

Source: Tradingview

For short-term momentum to turn positive, XRP needs to close above $2.02 to $2.05, which could take it to the $2.15 to $2.20 level. However, if the support level at $1.88 is broken, XRP may move down to $1.75, where the historical demand level meets the technical support level.

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