In XT’s Mandarin AMA, the independent analyst explained why a resilient price does not mean rates have stopped mattering—and what he would watch before changing his view.

An audience member raised an apparent contradiction: if Treasury yields were putting pressure on markets, why was Bitcoin still holding up? For Houshanren (後山人), a full-time independent analyst and content creator, that observation did not establish that Bitcoin had become insensitive to interest rates.

His explanation was that several forces could be working at once. Rate pressure might remain, while expectations already reflected in prices and buying demand offset part of its effect. A market that holds its ground can still be exposed to the factor weighing on it.

What the price alone cannot explain

Houshanren put the expected path of interest rates at the center of his assessment of crypto. He described high Treasury yields as raising the opportunity cost of holding assets such as Bitcoin and gold: investors also have the option of allocating capital to bonds.

Yet he did not read Bitcoin’s resilience as a direct measure of rate pressure. In his explanation, the market had already priced in part of the expected rate path. He also pointed to structural buying and the cost basis of existing positions as potential sources of support. These were his interpretations of market behavior, rather than proof that any particular price level would hold.

The distinction mattered when he considered what could happen next. He argued that a further rise in real Treasury yields could test that support again. A steady price at the time of the discussion was therefore insufficient evidence that the relationship with rates had disappeared.

Watch how the data changes expectations

Asked what might change his view over the following two weeks, Houshanren returned to the rate path. He wanted to see whether upcoming economic data would change the outlook already reflected in market prices.

“The key change, really, is whether some of the economic data being released tonight will rewrite the path of interest rates.”

— Houshanren, translated from Chinese

His focus included GDP and PCE, but it extended beyond the headline figures. Earlier in the discussion, he emphasized how Federal Reserve officials and the market would interpret the data after release. He also said he would monitor Treasury yields across maturities and spot Bitcoin ETF flows.

Those observations served different purposes in his framework. Economic releases could change policy expectations; Treasury yields reflected financing conditions; ETF flows offered another way to follow demand for Bitcoin. He was looking for changes across those signals rather than treating price resilience alone as evidence that rate pressure had passed.

A cautious outlook with a clear point of reassessment

His broader outlook was decidedly cautious. In discussing AI-related equities, he voiced concern about a bubble and argued that a U.S. stock market crash would precede the next crypto bull market. That was his own scenario, not a settled sequence of events. At the same time, he acknowledged the economic impact of AI and what he saw as strong corporate profits despite high financing costs. His concern about valuations did not erase that recognition of business performance.

For the upcoming data releases, he also cautioned against betting on a single market direction before the figures were available. The practical emphasis of his discussion was on what followed a release: how officials responded, whether rate expectations changed, and whether buying demand continued to support crypto prices.

Based on Houshanren’s contributions to XT’s Mandarin AMA, “From Macroeconomic Data to Tech Earnings: Where Are Risk Assets Headed?” on October 29, 2026 (UTC+8). The session title and quotation are editorial translations from Chinese. Views reflect the discussion at the time and are not investment advice. Session replay.

About XT Exchange

Founded in 2018, XT Exchange is a global digital asset trading platform serving more than 12 million registered users across over 200 countries and regions. Its services span spot, margin and futures trading, TradFi market exposure, a real-world asset marketplace, and everyday payments through XT Pay. Guided by Xplore Crypto Trade with Trust, XT Exchange enters its ninth year with Build the NeXT, reflecting its focus on trust, broader market access, and practical uses for digital assets.

Join the XT Exchange Community: X (Twitter) | Telegram | Facebook | Instagram | LinkedIn | Medium | YouTube

Disclaimer: XT Exchange reserves the right, at its sole discretion, to modify, amend, or cancel this announcement at any time for any reason without prior notice.