Toncoin (TON) has been trading near a crucial weekly support zone following a sustained corrective phase from its 2024 highs. Since mid-2022, TON respected a rising macro trendline, forming higher lows that signaled steady accumulation by long-term holders.

After breaking key horizontal resistance in early 2024, the coin experienced a strong rally, but this was followed by a prolonged downward correction within a defined descending channel. This corrective structure dominated price action throughout 2024 and 2025, producing lower highs and lower lows while testing the patience of investors.

Recent price behavior suggests that selling pressure may have been largely absorbed around the $1.70–$1.80 range. Liquidity sweeps below channel support indicate capitulation rather than a continuation of the downtrend. Long-term buyers appear to have stepped in, setting the stage for potential re-accumulation and future upside. Analysts note that as long as TON holds above $1.40, the macro bullish bias remains intact.

Bounce from Channel Support Signals Potential Trend Reversal

TON’s latest bounce off channel support points to a possible trend reversal if the coin can reclaim the midline of the descending corrective channel. A successful move above this level would signal the transition from correction to expansion, invalidating the previous bearish structure. Price targets for this scenario are ambitious, ranging from $3.50 to $30, based on macro resistance and the upper extension of the long-term ascending trendline.

On the daily chart, however, the technical picture is more cautious. TON is trading at $1.73, below key moving averages including the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs. The EMA cluster around $1.73–$1.93 acts as immediate resistance, while the 200 EMA near $2.37 reflects longer-term bearish pressure. This setup indicates that any short-term rallies remain corrective unless sustained momentum drives the price above these levels.

Toncoin RSI Signals Eased Selling but Limited Buying

Momentum indicators present a mixed but stabilizing picture. The 14-day RSI has recovered to around 52 after oversold conditions, suggesting selling pressure has eased. However, it remains below the bullish zone above 60, signaling that buyers lack strong follow-through.

Similarly, the MACD histogram has turned positive briefly but is flattening near the zero line, indicating that the market is in consolidation rather than a clear bullish trend. The Bull Bear Power remains slightly negative, confirming that sellers still hold structural control.

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