Bitcoin Price May Fall to $95,000 as ETF Outflows and RSI Align
- Bitcoin may fall to $95,000, as bearish RSI and ETF outflows align with macroeconomic weakness.
- Weekly RSI breakdown mirrors past 24–26% corrections, flashing a strong technical warning.
- Arthur Hayes sees $100,000 retest, citing soft U.S. jobs data and risk-off investor sentiment.
Bitcoin’s six-day slide has tempered the overall cryptocurrency market with technical signals, institutional redemptions, and experts’ views all signaling a potential deeper correction in the pipeline. Currently trading at $114,272 or thereabouts, Bitcoin may be set for yet another dizzying pullback in the views of various experienced experts.
Bearish RSI Signal Sparks Bitcoin Crash Fears
Prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez has pointed out a scary alert using the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum gauge applied for detecting prospective reversals in financial assets’ prices. Martinez identifies that Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has now fallen below the 14-period moving average, a classic bearish sign.
“This same RSI breakdown led to two large corrections over the past year,” noted Martinez. “In June 2024, a 26% price decline transpired, yet again in January 2025, Bitcoin fell close to 24% once this pattern set in.”
If the current RSI pattern unfolds similarly, Bitcoin is expected to decline from its current region of approximately $113,900 down towards a region of around $95,000, a psychological and technical support area.
Bitcoin Faces $100,000 Test as Market Risk Grows
To add to the bearish sentiment, BitMEX co-founder and macro investor Arthur Hayes published his forecast, which is for Bitcoin testing the $100,000 mark in the near term.
Hayes’s forecast is based on macroeconomic weaknesses, which include the recent U.S. employment report recording a meager 73,000 new jobs for July, much less than the markets’ 110,000 projection.
“The soft labour market and macroeconomic uncertainty can lead to a flight from risk,” Hayes pointed out in a recent blog post. “$100,000 is more than a round number figure; it’s supported by the 200-day moving average, Fibonacci retracement levels, and prior consolidation areas.”
Hayes added that if institutional investors keep selling assets, it can catalyze a more rapid decline.
Also Read | Bitcoin August Forecast: Crash Below $90,000 or Bullish Rebound Ahead?
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Signal Growing Bearish Sentiment
In addition to the bear case, spot Bitcoin ETFs in America have now seen five days of net outflows. Institutional funds such as Grayscale, ARK Invest, and Fidelity have seen consecutive redemptions on their parts, which indicate waning confidence among large-money investors.
Although ETF redemptions do not necessarily indicate a near-term change in trend, they more often reflect the underlying market sentiment. Here, with outflows at a point of technical breakdowns, it indicates a deeper correction is a possibility.
Despite increasing alarms, several crypto veterans advise prudence over panic. Some consider this decline a natural retracement within a longer bull cycle in light of the long-term fundamentals such as accelerating world adoption, a constricting supply of BTC, and expected rate decreases from the central banks as favorable tailwinds.
However, for the moment, the intersection of deteriorating technical signals, downward macro trends, and diminishing institutional sentiment is providing a guarded short-term perspective. A move towards $95,000 might be next if BTC cannot maintain the $110,000–$100,000 support area.
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