Bitcoin is trading near 75,800 dollars as of May 23, roughly 40 percent below the all-time high of approximately 126,000 dollars reached in October 2025. Cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Poppe has warned that a failure to reclaim the 76,600 dollar level could open the path back toward the February 2026 low near 60,000 dollars. With macroeconomic uncertainty intensifying under newly confirmed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, market participants are weighing conflicting signals from technical indicators, on-chain data, and prediction markets.

Bearish Technical Signals Point to Further Downside

Van de Poppe identified a breakdown below the 75,000 to 76,000 dollar support zone as the key trigger for renewed selling pressure. He noted that multiple Chicago Mercantile Exchange Bitcoin futures gaps remain unfilled above the current spot price, with the highest sitting above 79,000 dollars. In his analysis shared on May 21, he stated that if Bitcoin does not grind back upward to 76,600 dollars or higher, there is no clear argument to assume the market will reach new highs in the near term.

Short-term technical indicators support the cautious outlook. Data from TradingView shows that 13 of 23 technical signals are currently bearish, with only five registering as bullish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index sits at approximately 38, indicating neutral-to-weak momentum. The next significant support level below 75,000 dollars rests near 73,500 dollars, and a sustained break below that zone could accelerate the decline toward 65,000 dollars, according to van de Poppe.

Bull Case Rests on 90-Day Rally Pattern and Holder Conviction

Not all analysts share the bearish view. Trader and market analyst Matthew Hyland argued that the 90-day rally from Bitcoin’s February 60,000 dollar low constitutes a historically significant bull market signal. Hyland noted that no rally of that duration trending upward for 89 consecutive days has ever occurred during a bear market in Bitcoin’s history. He pointed to high-timeframe resistance breaks that preceded three prior bull market rallies as supporting evidence for continued upside potential.

On-chain data adds further nuance. According to Glassnode and CoinDesk reporting, long-term holders now control approximately 78 percent of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, up from 74 percent earlier in the year. This cohort, defined as investors holding for at least 155 days, has accumulated more than two million additional Bitcoin during the current drawdown. K33 Research maintained in a May 19 report that the February drop to 60,000 dollars likely marked the deepest drawdown of the cycle, citing historically muted selling pressure from long-term holders.

Macroeconomic Backdrop Adds Complexity

The Federal Reserve landscape shifted on May 22 when Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new Fed Chair with a 54 to 45 Senate vote, succeeding Jerome Powell. Warsh has signaled a preference for continuing quantitative tightening to reduce the Fed balance sheet while leaving room for selective rate cuts if economic data justifies easing. Rate traders are pricing in more than a 70 percent chance of one or more rate adjustments by year-end 2026, though strategists expect rates to remain steady through the near term. The combination of tighter liquidity conditions and potential rate relief creates a mixed environment for risk assets including Bitcoin.

Risks and Uncertainties

Several downside risks remain. Polymarket participants have assigned a 51 percent probability to Bitcoin touching 55,000 dollars in 2026 and a 31 percent chance of reaching 45,000 dollars, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment among prediction market participants. The seven-month duration of the current drawdown from the October 2025 peak is approaching historical bear market territory. If the 73,500 dollar support level fails, forced liquidations from leveraged positions could amplify selling pressure and accelerate any move toward 60,000 dollars.

On the other hand, the record concentration of supply among long-term holders compresses the available sell-side float, which has historically preceded significant price recoveries. Whether this structural supply constraint outweighs the macroeconomic headwinds remains an open question that will likely depend on incoming Federal Reserve policy signals and broader risk appetite in global markets.

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