The XPredict market on the 2026 Men’s US Open winner is heading into its final days, with the semifinals set for Friday, September 11 and the title match to follow. The single biggest development since the previous roundup isn’t a match result — it’s an absence. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner withdrew from the tournament on August 21 with a recurring right knee injury, removing the man who had anchored the market’s pricing all summer.

What remains is a wide-open field of four players, headlined by a guarantee that has nothing to do with predictions: an American man will play in Sunday’s final, since Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe meet in one semifinal.

What Has Changed Since the Previous Roundup?

The earlier XPredict overview treated Sinner as the field’s clear anchor, with the rest of the draw priced as a group “refusing to fold” around him. That framing no longer applies. Sinner’s exit removed the shortest-priced name from the market entirely, and the draw has since produced two of the most dramatic results of the tournament: defending champion and No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz was eliminated by No. 8 seed Ben Shelton in a five-set quarterfinal that finished at 3:33 a.m. ET, the latest match conclusion in US Open history, while No. 11 seed Frances Tiafoe recovered from two sets down to beat fellow American Alex Michelsen.

On the bottom half, Alexander Zverev advanced in straight sets, and Karen Khachanov — unseeded and ranked outside the top 30 entering the tournament — completed one of the field’s most unexpected runs. Where the previous article priced a single favorite against the field, the market now has to price four realistic paths to the title, with the built-in certainty of an American finalist folded in.

Tournament Update: The Remaining Contenders

• Ben Shelton (No. 8 seed, ATP No. 4) enters the semifinal off the win of his tournament, having ended Alcaraz’s run in a fifth-set tiebreak. He reaches his second US Open semifinal.
• Frances Tiafoe (No. 11 seed, ATP No. 8) has now been to the US Open’s final weekend multiple times and showed his resilience again by erasing a two-set deficit against Michelsen. He leads the tournament’s home crowd narrative alongside Shelton.
• Alexander Zverev (No. 2 seed, ATP No. 2) is the highest-ranked player left in the draw and reached his fourth Grand Slam semifinal of 2026 with a comfortable win over Botic van de Zandschulp, extending a run that has also included a win over Luciano Darderi.
• Karen Khachanov (unseeded, ATP just outside the top 30 entering the event) is the field’s clearest outlier. He beat third seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, came back from two sets to one down against Learner Tien, and advanced to the semifinal when Alexander Blockx retired with an injury while trailing two sets to none. It’s his first Grand Slam semifinal in four years.

Shelton leads his head-to-head with Tiafoe 3-1 heading into their fifth career meeting, with their two prior US Open matches split 1-1.

XPredict Market Snapshot

Player	Yes Probability	No Probability	Multiplier
Alexander Zverev	50.2%	49.9%	1.99x
Ben Shelton	37.1%	63.2%	2.69x
Frances Tiafoe	8.1%	92.1%	12.34x
Karen Khachanov	5.3%	94.6%	18.86x
Casper Ruud	0.1%	99.9%	1000.00x

Source: XPredict | Volume: ~$24.2M USD | Market Close: September 13, 2026

The figures above are time-stamped, crowd-implied probabilities reflecting current participant sentiment — not forecasts or guarantees of the outcome.

Why the Market Is Pricing the Field This Way

The live XPredict pricing lines up closely with these narrative drivers. Zverev’s straight-sets progression and his No. 2 ranking make him the market’s narrow favorite at 50.2%, consistent with reaching his fourth major semifinal this year. Shelton’s win over the defending champion has kept him priced as a clear second contender at 37.1% — the kind of result that tends to pull sentiment toward a player regardless of seeding. Tiafoe’s comeback signals resilience but also two five-set matches worth of physical load heading into the semifinal, and the market prices that risk at 8.1%. Khachanov is priced as the field’s clearest outlier at 5.3%: a deep unseeded run generates attention, but the market has historically been cautious about pricing an unseeded player as a leading contender given the smaller sample of him beating this caliber of opponent back-to-back. These are the narrative drivers behind the numbers in the table above, not a substitute for them.

What to Watch Before the Final

The two semifinals — Shelton vs. Tiafoe and Zverev vs. Khachanov — will settle both finalist slots on Friday. Physical recovery is a live question for Tiafoe (five-set, comeback quarterfinal) and for Khachanov (five-set win over Tien plus a retirement-shortened quarterfinal that limited his court time). Shelton’s serve and his form after the marathon Alcaraz win will be tested against Tiafoe’s return game, while Zverev’s consistency meets a Khachanov run built on aggression and momentum rather than seeding. Any late fitness news before Friday’s matches remains the most likely source of a genuine sentiment shift before the market closes.

Key Takeaway: An Open Field With One Guarantee

The removal of the tournament’s presumptive favorite has turned the men’s US Open market into a genuinely open field with a guaranteed American storyline built in. Zverev’s clean run and No. 2 seeding have made him the market’s narrow favorite at 50.2% implied probability, with Shelton priced as the clearest challenger at 37.1% — a reflection of how participants are currently weighing four different, verified paths to the title, not a prediction of who will win.

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