• Citi sets $135K as Bitcoin’s base-case target, with a bullish high of $199K.
• ETF flows and growing user activity are key drivers behind the forecast.
• Bitcoin’s chart shows strong support above key moving averages.

Citi has refreshed its Bitcoin price model to better match the fast-changing digital asset market. The Wall Street bank now expects Bitcoin to hit $135,000 by the end of the year under its base-case scenario, according to the report.

In a more optimistic outlook, the price could climb as high as $199,000. But if markets weaken, especially in equities, Citi’s lower-end forecast drops to $64,000.

The new approach centers on three main factors: user growth, ETF demand, and broader economic trends. Citi’s analysts believe user adoption could rise by 20%, supported by stronger network activity.

This alone would push BTC to around $75,000. From there, they estimate that an additional $15 billion in ETF inflows would raise the price by another $63,000. On the flip side, weak performance in gold and equities would reduce it by around $3,200, leading to the $135K base case.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in the U.S. earlier this year, have had a major impact on the market. Citi now attributes over 40% of Bitcoin’s recent price swings to these ETF flows. With institutional involvement growing fast, Bitcoin is moving closer to traditional financial markets.

The report also highlights that demand for ETFs has been rising more quickly than expected and that user engagement is holding stronger than the model predicted. These shifts suggest that network effects could stick around longer and push prices higher.

Also Read: Bitcoin ETFs Bounce Back with $226.6 Million Inflows After Three-Day Slump

Standard Chartered’s Forecast Touches $200K Mark

Standard Chartered also updated its view, projecting BTC to reach $200,000 by the end of the year. The bank points to heavy ETF inflows and growing interest from corporate treasuries as the main reasons for its more aggressive forecast.

Geoff Kendrick, who leads digital asset research at the firm, said that Bitcoin now behaves more like a macro asset rather than something tied to past halving cycles.

Bitcoin Technicals Still Point Uptrend

The BTC value is $116,549 at present, with trading within a weekly range of $117,235 – $114,770. Following a marginal 0.59% decline this week, BTC still remains well above all major exponential moving averages. The 20-week EMA is $103,678, with the 200-week EMA lower at $58,987, both indicating an enduring bullish mindset.

RSI stands at 67.22, nearing the overbought zone but still not quite there. Also favoring a bullish tale are momentum gauges like MACD, which sport bullish histogram bars as well as an expanding gap between MACD and signal lines.

BTC’s challenge to crack the $120,000 ceiling has so far met resistance, yet a successful weekly breakout from this level would pave the way towards Citi’s $135K target in the months to follow. If BTC doesn’t breach $120K in the near future, a correction to $103K–$105K is still on the cards.

Also Read: Bitcoin’s 63.35% Dominance: Will Altcoins Experience a Major Reversal?