• Bitcoin could hit $644,000 by 2028, matching half of gold’s projected market value.
• Analysts highlighted Bitcoin’s scarcity after the 2028 halving may trigger major price growth.
• Rising gold prices and economic uncertainty boost Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal.

Bitcoin might have been worth close to half the value of gold by its next halving in 2028. According to the analysts, the historical surge recorded by gold puts the channel equivalent value of Bitcoin at approximately $644,000. The projection comes after gold futures soared past the value of $4,000 per ounce, further justifying the replacement of gold by Bitcoin as a digital safe-haven.

VanEck has a team led by Matthew Sigel, who has long believed that in the 2028 halving, BTC would have achieved half the market capitalization of gold. BTC mining rewards are halved as the halving is a planned event that often lowers the supply and consequently makes the BTC more scarce. These events have historically led to big explosions in prices.

We’ve been saying Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving. Roughly half of gold’s value reflects its use as a store of value rather than industrial or jewelry demand, and surveys show younger consumers in emerging markets increasingly prefer Bitcoin…

— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) October 7, 2025

Bitcoin’s Scarcity and Gold’s Surge Drive New Generation of Investors

This comparison is contributed by the rapid rise of gold. The political tensions and the U.S. tariffs coupled with currency instability have caused an uncertain situation that has led to investors turning to gold. The precious metal has soared 50% this year and that is why it is currently among the safest assets. By contrast, BTC has had a slower ascendancy though it is gaining considerable demand.

Also Read: Bitcoin (BTC) & Gold Surge as Stock Markets Tumble Amid Critical US Government Shutdown

Sigel claimed that younger investors view BTC as the store of value of their generation. He clarified that one of the reasons why gold is worth half its value is that it functions as a food store of wealth, but not jewelry or industry. Data indicates that young people in emerging economies are more likely to use bitcoin as a way of cushioning their savings against inflation.

Analysts Split on BTC’s Rally as Gold Advocates Urge Caution

According to analyst Jordi Visser, younger generations were losing confidence in the financial system. He observed that they feel that the economic conditions were getting worse every year. Visser argues that their incentive towards an increasing amount of public expenditure may favor digital currencies like BTC, stimulating a long-run uptake and appreciation in price.

Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, was more pessimistic. According to him, gold had the ability to go higher before it could be corrected. Brandt in a post on X, wrote that it is not possible to predict the top and cave warnings that investors who are after current highs can incur heavy losses in the future.

Gold may go substantially higher before any meaningful correction. How much higher? No clue!
But I am quite certain that “all-in” FOMO buyers at these levels will need deep pockets in the future $GC_F pic.twitter.com/Uz3SgnWDrZ

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 7, 2025

The record was broken this week when BTC crossed the $126,000 point. Nonetheless, gold proponent and BTC critic Peter Schiff posited that the cryptocurrency was much below its all-time high in comparison with gold. He argued that BTC had to go to a level of approximately $148,000 to match its previous high in gold value.

Bitcoin also made a new high today, trading above $126K. But it terms of gold, it’s still about 15% below its record high. I still think it’s too early for Bitcoiners to get excited about the rally. Until Bitcoin can make a new high priced in gold, it’s just a bear market rally.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) October 6, 2025

Schiff stated that it is too soon that Bitcoin investors can celebrate. He referred to the recent rise as a bear market rally unless BTC could rise beyond its record going by its gold price. Schiff has been among the most outspoken critical minds on BTC , still inclining towards physical gold as a less risky hedge.

Some people are confident about the future of Bitcoin. According to Joe Consorti, the leader of growth at Bitcoin custodian Then, gold has forced the fair value floor of BTC into the range of about $1.34 million. The fact that gold is increasingly correlated with Bitcoin, according to him, is reason to believe that digital assets are becoming acclaimed as macroeconomic hedges.

Analysts believe that BTC and gold are being influenced by the same forces across the world. Investor demand is heightened by economic uncertainty, inflation and a loss of confidence in central banks. It is too early to say that BTC could really compete with strength with the centuries-old role of gold, yet the trend toward its leveling seems to become narrower.

Also Read: Bitcoin Correlation With Gold Signals Strong Upside for Q4