• Bitcoin trades above $106,000 as the market eyes two potential long-term scenarios
• Retail investors’ participation plunges, inflows to Binance fall from 552 BTC to just 92 BTC
• Institutional interest and long-term holders reshape Bitcoin’s market dynamics

Bitcoin is trading at $106,924.55, hovering near a key technical zone as traders outline contrasting long-term possibilities. Market expert Trader Tardigrade shared two possible scenarios for the BTC/3-day chart.

In the first scenario, Bitcoin could experience a short-term decline toward the lower boundary of its trading channel before rebounding sharply to reach an ambitious target near $280,000.

The second scenario suggests that Bitcoin has already found its bottom and may instead aim for a moderate peak around $180,000.

The ongoing uncertainty stems from mixed signals in broader market sentiment. Bitcoin’s steady climb through 2024, combined with reduced volatility, has created a cautious tone among traders.

While institutional demand remains steady through ETFs and corporate reserves, retail involvement appears to be weakening, shifting the market’s internal balance.

Also Read: 3 Key Trump Moves That Made Bitcoin(BTC) Surge to $110K

Retail Bitcoin Activity Faces Steep Decline

Darkfost, a well-known market observer, noted a sharp decline in retail participation, especially among small Bitcoin holders often called “shrimps.”

These investors typically hold less than 0.1 BTC and have historically been a major driver of market momentum. However, inflows from this group into Binance have collapsed.

In early 2023, retail users were sending around 552 BTC per day to Binance. That figure has now plunged to just 92 BTC, a drop of more than 80%.

The shift began shortly after the last bear market ended and accelerated with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Before ETFs went live, average daily inflows were roughly 450 BTC; since then, they have dropped drastically and continue trending lower.

Rise in Long-Term Holding Among Retail Investors

There are three major reasons that sum up this radical change. Many retail investors today choose to invest in Bitcoin via ETFs rather than conducting trades on the exchanges themselves.

Some people who still possess Bitcoins are starting to act in a long-term way, not realizing any gains by cashing out. There are also small investors who’ve built up sufficient balances of BTC to remove themselves from the “shrimps.”

This is a sign of a paradigm shift in the market structure. The engine that is fueling Bitcoin’s rally is no longer driven by small retail traders but is gradually moving towards bigger groups of people, institutional investors, and those involved in accumulation.

Also Read: Strategy Buys 397 Bitcoin at $114,771 Each, Strengthening $47B BTC Portfolio