• The Bitcoin Power Law model means fair value is around $142,000, which suggests a major breakout could be brewing.
• Analyst Adam Livingston says Bitcoin’s low-odds price formation suggests that the leading cryptocurrency is on the verge of a massive up move.
• Mixed predictions aside, Bitcoin’s long-term projection model is in the bullish zone.

Bitcoin could be on the verge of a major breakout, as suggested by market analyst Adam Livingston’s model for Bitcoin Power Law. The model put fair value for Bitcoin at around $142,000. It projects an upper bound price target of roughly $512,000 by December 31, 2025, and a lower constraint just over the $50,000 mark (indicating a wide yet clearly defined price corridor).

It’s rare for Bitcoin to remain near the lower bound of this channel for very long, Livingston added, noting that BTC generally trades at or above its fair value. He noted that such a pattern has typically indicated strong potential for an upward move. In the past, such levels preceded a runaway rally in BTC or a minor dip that quickly reversed and led to an even stronger move upside.

Source: X

Bitcoin’s Fair-Value Pattern Meets Renewed Market Caution

The model tracks Bitcoin’s expansion with a long-term regression trend containing upper, middle and lower price bands. When BTC’s price holds for a time along the fair-value line, it frequently tees up a big shift in direction, Livingston said. He noted that the current price action looks similar to those that began prior massive bull runs.

Also Read: Ethereum Eyes $4,400–$4,955: Could a Major Bullish Break Loom?

However, a few institutions have since lowered their projections given the market plunge in October. The slide sent Bitcoin’s price below the $100,000 threshold that traders consider an important psychological level. The event also induced near-term uncertainty among the wider crypto market.

Galaxy Digital reduced its forecast Friday for BTC at the end of 2025 from $180,000 to $120,000. The firm pointed to reduced volatility, a maturing trading environment and growing investor interest in other sectors like artificial intelligence. The October correction destroyed short term momentum but didn’t break the underlying market structure, according to Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn.

Bitcoin Holds Key Level Amid Mixed Forecasts

So long as it stays above that $100,000 level, Bitcoin’s longer-term bullish setup remains intact,” Thorn added. He’s optimistic that the longer-term trend remains up, even if future gains may move at a slower pace.

Investment manager Cathie Wood of ARK Invest also cut her long-term forecast by $300,000. She said the change was driven by demand from developing economies desperate for digital stores of value — but now they have an alternative: stablecoins.

These opposing forecasts highlight a divided analyst community. Some consider BTC’s current range as a zone for consolidation, potentially leading to another leg up; others regard it as fatigue.

Livingston’s Power Law model, on another hand, provides an alternative explanation. It demonstrates that BTC’s price still hovers within its long-term growth channel and near its fair value. The model’s historical data indicates that conditions like this surely would not be the first for a significant upward move.

BTC currently sits near crucial levels, and for the time being it remains range-bound as investors eagerly await confirmation regarding its near-term trend. Whether the cryptocurrency breaks up, or down from support will be dependent on where the cryptocurrency is headed next for 2025.

Also Read: Bitcoin (BTC) Mirrors Past Market Cycles as Institutional Investors Take the Lead: Report