Bitcoin is trading around $109,000 with modest movement over the last day. The weekly chart still shows a broader pullback, and recent data points suggest pressure may continue.

Analysts are watching historical support levels, especially those tied to on-chain cost metrics.

Realized Price Levels Come Into Focus

Bitcoin has slipped below the short-term holder (STH) realized price, which stands at $113,250. Long-term holder (LTH) realized price is much lower, near $36,910. In past cycles, when BTC lost the STH level, it often moved down toward the LTH price. This pattern has shown up during large corrections.

Ali Martinez noted,

Historically, when Bitcoin $BTC breaks below the STH Realized Price, it tends to fall under the LTH Realized Price too, now sitting at $37,000. pic.twitter.com/HM4RuypxXp

— Ali (@ali_charts) October 23, 2025

While BTC is still far above the $37K range, traders are tracking this area as a possible target if selling deepens. So far, there is no indication that the LTH zone is under threat, but the setup matches earlier downside phases.

Retail Selling on Binance Rises

CryptoQuant data shows a rise in selling activity from retail traders. On October 22, about 13,000 BTC were sold on Binance—worth around $1.4 billion. This marked the second big wave in one week, following a similar event on October 17.

Amr Taha wrote,

“This marks the second major selling wave in a week.”

The STH realized cap, which reflects the value held by short-term holders, fell from $15.2B to $2.2B in eight days. This signals that many exited their positions, locking in losses or shifting assets. At the same time, long-term wallets appeared to be increasing holdings, a pattern seen often during retail-driven dips.

Key Demand Zone Holds Steady

Bitcoin is still trading above a long-standing support zone between $108K and $110K. This level has served as a base in previous market slowdowns. The 21-week EMA is sitting near the same range, which may be adding to the current support.

On the daily chart, the price is showing early signs of building a higher low, marked by a rising line from recent candles. Rekt Capital said this is only a “very initial” development. A firm move back above $114K is needed to shift momentum. For now, BTC remains range-bound.

Traders Watching CPI and Macro News

Short-term moves may depend on upcoming data. Ted said,

“If CPI comes higher than expected, expect more pain ahead.”

A softer inflation reading could help risk markets. Elsewhere, technical traders noted a bullish divergence and a golden cross on the 12-hour chart. Bitcoin is still holding the lower end of its recent range after rejection near $114,500.

Meanwhile, some large BTC holders are moving funds into spot ETFs, seeking better access to traditional finance while avoiding taxable events. Analysts at VanEck called this part of a “liquidity-driven mid-cycle reset” in a recent note.

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