Bitcoin trades near $78,194 as multiple on-chain indicators suggest growing fragility in the derivatives market, with the Estimated Leverage Ratio climbing toward 14.9% and US Spot Bitcoin ETFs recording nearly $1 billion in outflows over the past week.

Leverage Risks Intensify as Futures Market Overheats

According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake analysis published by XWIN Research Japan, the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) has surged toward 14.9%. The ELR measures leverage usage in the Bitcoin futures market by comparing open interest to the amount of BTC held on exchanges. XWIN Research Japan noted that while high leverage can boost prices in the near term, “healthy bull markets are usually driven by spot demand,” and that current conditions increase vulnerability to sudden liquidation events.

Both Open Interest and Funding Rates have seen significant increases, reflecting an overwhelming concentration of long positions. The research group warned that “long positions are now increasingly exposed to downside volatility” following Bitcoin’s recent move toward $82,000, which was also influenced by sell-side liquidity.

ETF Outflows and Macro Headwinds Add Pressure

US-based institutional activity appears subdued, as reflected in a prolonged negative reading of the Coinbase Premium. More notably, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $1 billion in capital outflows over the past week, according to XWIN Research Japan’s analysis.

The macroeconomic backdrop adds further weight. The US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed near 4.6%, while the 30-year yield moved above 5%, both signaling that markets currently lean toward a “higher for longer” interest rate environment. These conditions have historically placed downward pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Long-Term Holders and Liquidity Provide a Counterbalance

Despite the elevated risk signals, XWIN Research Japan highlighted several stabilizing factors. Bitcoin long-term holders currently hold more than 15 million BTC, with over 316,000 BTC entering the market over the past month. Additionally, stablecoin inflows to Binance continue to grow, suggesting that liquidity remains available on the sidelines.

The $78,000 to $79,000 range, which overlaps with the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, represents the critical level to watch. If this support fails, bearish pressure could intensify quickly. Conversely, stability in ETF flows and a recovery in the Coinbase Premium could provide renewed bullish momentum. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at approximately $78,194, down 1.2% over the past 24 hours.

About XT Exchange

Founded in 2018, XT Exchange is a leading global digital asset trading platform, serving over 12 million registered users across more than 200 countries and regions, with an ecosystem reach exceeding 40 million. XT Exchange supports 1,300+ tokens and 1,300+ trading pairs, offering a wide range of trading options, including spot, margin, and futures, alongside a secure RWA (Real World Assets) marketplace. Guided by the vision ‘Xplore Crypto, Trade with Trust,’ the platform strives to provide a secure, trusted, and intuitive trading experience.