• In 2025, Bitcoin’s performance has trailed that of U.S. Treasuries, which are considered the safest asset in the world.
• The crypto market is becoming exhausted as retail investors reach “max desperation.”
• Analysts are observing $89,600 as the bullish level for Bitcoin’s ETFs.

Bitcoin, once thought to be the wave of the future, is having a rather sobering year. In 2025, the world’s least speculative asset has outperformed the world’s most speculative asset: the United States Treasuries.

Bitcoin is up only 8% this year while Treasuries are producing higher returns. That comparison hurts. Treasuries are intended to be synonymous with safety; they are where investors go for investment stability. Bitcoin has always refused to conform to the norms of safer assets, remaining the wild frontier, volatile, exciting, and full of possibility.

The year started off with anticipation. Bitcoin surpassed $100,000, and it seemed like a new bull cycle had begun. However, that momentum waned, and then the crash came, and prices fell sharply erasing most of BTC’s gains in 2025. The yellow line that was once so positive and above Treasuries has fallen below Treasuries as of late.

Also Read: Crypto Market Correlation With S&P 500 Breaks as Bitcoin Falls Under $100,000

Bitcoin and the Fear of “Max Desperation”

According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, retail investors have hit “max desperation.” This is the point where fear takes the place of faith. But Hougan is calm. He insists there is no second crypto winter ahead.

That said, the numbers tell a story of pressure. On Tuesday, Bitcoin ETFs suffered $578 million in outflows, a huge withdrawal that reflects worries among investors, evidenced by the average cost basis of all BTC held in spot BTC ETFs, which is $89,600. That is now a key price point because if BTC falls below that price, many investors will be underwater again.

Markets often seek to test conviction. BTC has never been anything but. Each time it drops, the same question rings true: “Is this the end, or the latest chapter, in its long and volatile history?”

Bitcoin Slips Behind U.S. Treasuries

For now, the market feels heavy. What once was excitement in early 2025 has turned into reluctance. But BTC has never been a story of ascendant climbs. It has been a story of crashes and bounces back, of fear and faith.

Maybe this period of weakness does not signal an end, but merely a slowing of the story. It is a reminder that even the most aggressive assets stumble, and even the most conservative assets can run out in front.

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Outlook: $125K Target Unlikely for 2025 Rally