The XPredict market on the 2026 Women’s US Open Winner closes September 13, 2026 at 03:00, just ahead of the tournament’s final. With the semifinals set for Thursday, September 10, the range of realistic outcomes has narrowed sharply from the wide field the market opened around. Four players remain: top seed Aryna Sabalenka, No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula, No. 4 seed Coco Gauff, and newly-minted world No. 1 Elena Rybakina — only the second time in the Open Era, and the first at any Grand Slam since Wimbledon 2009, that all four women’s semifinal berths have gone to the tournament’s top four seeds.

What Has Changed Since the Previous Roundup?

XT’s prior roundup, snapshotted August 6, 2026, treated the draw as wide open: Sabalenka led implied probability at 28.0%, trailed by Rybakina (9.0%), Gauff (8.7%) and Naomi Osaka (6.9%), spread across roughly 40 player selections and about $6.4 million in volume. Osaka, French Open champion Mirra Andreeva, and 2025 finalist Amanda Anisimova — all named as contenders in that earlier piece — are out of the draw; Osaka and Anisimova exited before the quarterfinals, and Andreeva was eliminated by Gauff in a three-set quarterfinal.

What opened as a roughly 40-name field is now, mathematically, a four-name field, and the probability mass previously spread across eliminated players has consolidated behind the four names still standing: as of this update, Sabalenka leads at 38.0% implied probability, with Gauff at 25.4%, Rybakina at 24.6%, and Pegula at 12.0%, on total market volume of roughly $10.6 million.

Tournament Update: The Remaining Contenders

Sabalenka reached her sixth consecutive US Open semifinal with a 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(7) win over Linda Noskova, continuing her bid to become the first woman since Serena Williams (2012–14) to win three straight US Open titles. Pegula advanced with a 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 win over fellow American Emma Navarro, and now meets Sabalenka for the third year running at Flushing Meadows — Sabalenka beat her in the 2024 final and the 2025 semifinal. Gauff outlasted French Open champion Mirra Andreeva 2-6, 7-6(7), 6-2, saving match points along the way, and arrives on an 11-match winning streak that includes the Cincinnati title. Her semifinal opponent, Rybakina, beat Zheng Qinwen 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 to reach the final four while also guaranteeing she becomes the new WTA world No. 1 once the tournament ends — Rybakina is unbeaten in hard-court Grand Slam matches this season (12-0), a run that includes her Australian Open title.

XPredict Market Snapshot

Player	Yes Probability	No Probability	Multiplier
Aryna Sabalenka	38.0%	64.0%	2.63x
Coco Gauff	25.4%	76.4%	3.93x
Elena Rybakina	24.6%	74.0%	4.06x
Jessica Pegula	12.0%	88.0%	8.33x

Source: XPredict | Volume: ~$10.6M USD | Market Close: September 13, 2026

These figures are time-stamped, crowd-implied probabilities — a reflection of what market participants are currently willing to pay for each outcome, not a forecast, prediction, or guarantee of the tournament’s result.

Why the Market Is Pricing the Field This Way

The verified facts on court help explain where implied probability is currently concentrated. Sabalenka is the only player in the draw who has already won this exact title outright in each of the past two years, holds the better recent head-to-head against her semifinal opponent on hard courts (5-3), and needs only two more wins to complete an unprecedented three-peat. Rybakina’s case rests on current form rather than history: a perfect hard-court Grand Slam record this season and a fresher run relative to a field that has played deeper, longer draws. Gauff’s 11-match streak and an already-banked hard-court title in Cincinnati support her as a live threat, but she has not beaten Rybakina in either of their two prior meetings. Pegula, despite reaching a third straight US Open semifinal against Sabalenka, carries the head-to-head disadvantage in New York specifically, having lost to her in this same round last year and in the 2024 final.

None of this is a price by itself — it is the context the current market snapshot is being read against — and reputable previews from WTA.com, Sportskeeda, and Tennis Majors broadly frame Sabalenka and Rybakina as the semifinal favorites without treating either outcome as settled, consistent with Sabalenka’s leading share of implied probability above.

What to Watch Before the Final

Both semifinals are scheduled for Thursday, September 10 at Arthur Ashe Stadium. In Sabalenka–Pegula, the open question is whether Pegula can use home-crowd energy to unsettle Sabalenka’s first-strike game early, since her better recent results against Sabalenka have come when she avoids letting the Belarusian dictate rally length. In Gauff–Rybakina, the tactical question is whether Gauff’s movement and backhand can consistently neutralize Rybakina’s serve and flat ball-striking over three sets, something she has not yet managed in two prior meetings.

Fatigue is a live variable for both semifinalists coming off three-set quarterfinals — Sabalenka and Gauff both needed a deciding set, while Rybakina and Pegula won in straight sets but still played three overall — so no one player enters with a notably fresher path than the others. The winners meet in Saturday’s final, and the XPredict market closes shortly after, on September 13 at 03:00, leaving a narrow window between the final result and market settlement for any late repricing.

Key Takeaway: The Form Book Has Found Its Favorite

With the draw down to four players who represent the tournament’s own top four seeds, the 2026 Women’s US Open XPredict market has moved from an open-field question to a much narrower one, with Sabalenka now the clear favorite by implied probability. What’s verified is the form book: Sabalenka’s back-to-back title history, Rybakina’s unbeaten hard-court Grand Slam season, Gauff’s 11-match win streak, and Pegula’s third straight semifinal appearance against the same opponent. What isn’t yet known is who wins the next two matches.

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