What to Expect From FOMC Meeting Today: 3 Expert Predictions For Powell Speech and More
Here are three predictions to expect from the FOMC meeting today. First ask yourself: are they pumping
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today so they can dump it tomorrow after the FOMC meeting?
Almost all economists are expecting a 25 basis point cut, yet nobody’s confident it will feel bullish. Futures pricing via CME’s FedWatch tool shows roughly 85-90% odds of a quarter-point cut, the third of the year, with the fed funds range likely dropping again from the current 4.75–5.00% band.
The catch is the tone. This is shaping up as a classic “hawkish cut” moment:
Inflation is cooling, but not enough for Jerome Powell to declare victory. Core PCE is still running above the Fed’s 2% target on a 12-month basis.
So the Fed can justify easing, but it will not want markets to party like 2021 again. Here are three predictions you need to know:
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FOMC Meeting Today Prediction #1: What The Dot Plot Could Do To Stocks, Bonds And Crypto
The real drama lands in the Summary of Economic Projections. Let us explain; In September, the median dots pointed to three cuts in 2025 and only one in 2026. If the dots shift toward fewer cuts, or signal a higher-for-longer terminal rate, that hits everything including:
- Long-duration equities first (big tech, speculative growth)
- The belly of the Treasury curve
- High-beta risk like small caps and crypto
Crypto, especially Bitcoin, has been trading like a leveraged bet on real liquidity. When real yields fall, BTC tends to catch a bid; when the Fed leans hawkish, those flows can evaporate fast.
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Prediction #2: Why This FOMC Feels “Too Priced In”
Here’s the part that worries me: the market is almost unanimous. Fed funds futures price the cut. Sell-side houses are all pushing some version of “25 bps with stern guidance.” Investors are positioned risk-on into 2026, with surveys showing a clear majority expecting higher equities next year and no return to 2022’s chaos.
Whenever everyone thinks they know the script, the Fed usually smacks someone. That could mean:
- A cut combined with dots that crush hopes of multiple 2026 cuts
- Powell leaning hard into “financial conditions are still too easy”
If that happens, the first move after the statement is probably wrong.
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Prediction #3: How We’d Frame It As A Trader
If we were trading this live rather than writing about it, we would:
- Watch “financial conditions” language like a hawk; any hint that the Fed thinks markets got ahead of themselves is bearish risk-on.
- Fade extreme first reactions in indices, especially if the S&P or Nasdaq rip higher on a cut but the dots and tone are tighter than expected.
- Pay attention if Bitcoin sells off while the dollar and real yields rise, that’s confirmation the cut was hawkish in practice.
The Fed can still give us a gentle landing. But walking into a meeting where everyone is sure they are right is usually how someone ends up as the punchline on the chart.
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Key Takeaways
- Almost all economists are expecting a 25 basis point cut, yet nobody’s confident it will feel bullish. /key_takeaway]
Watch “financial conditions” language like a hawk; any hint that the Fed thinks markets got ahead of themselves is bearish risk-on.
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