• XLM’s 2025 structure mirrors its 2017 breakout pattern, hinting at a potential long-term rally.
• The token trades around $0.389, holding firm above key support at $0.36 despite market hesitation.
• A breakout above $0.445 could trigger a new bullish phase, while a drop below $0.36 risks deeper losses.

Analyst EtherNasyonaL highlighted that Stellar Lumens (XLM) is mirroring its 2017 setup, where a prolonged descending wedge breakout led to a massive rally.

The 2025 weekly chart shows similar structural behavior, suggesting that the asset could be nearing a key inflection point once again.

Currently, XLM trades near $0.3897, slightly down from its weekly open at $0.396. This 1.6% dip shows caution among traders who are waiting for confirmation before entering larger positions.

Despite this, the token continues to hover above the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) at $0.360, indicating that buyers are still active in defending key technical levels.

While the broader outlook remains steady, XLM continues to struggle below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.398. This level now serves as immediate resistance, and a breakout above it could renew buying momentum.

Also Read: Stellar (XLM) Rockets Toward $8 Target as LOAN Protocol Boosts Adoption

Market Consolidation Defines Stellar’s Current Phase

Corrected from a high of $0.520 earlier this year, XLM consolidated towards the $0.20 mark before consolidating between $0.36 and $0.44. This very narrow consolidation band indicates ambiguity, as the sellers as well as the buyers are waiting for a clear indication.

Both the Bollinger Bands reinforce the same story, with the upper band at $0.5149 and the lower band at $0.2057, indicating a phase of low volatility but still receptive to stinging moves.

Momentum indicators are still mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 indicates a neutral-to-moderately bullish inclination, meaning that XLM is still not overbought.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator still indicates weak bearish pressure, meaning that strength on the upside is building a base but still not the majority.

Key Levels to Watch for Breakout or Breakdown

XLM’s current resistance is at $0.398, and a more significant barrier is around $0.445. A weekly close through these points would potentially reserialize the price towards the $0.520 swing high earlier in the year.

On the negative side, $0.360 serves as short-term resistance, and the next cushion is the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.322. Failure to hold these levels could take prices back towards $0.20, which is the level that served as a significant reversal point.

Also Read: Stellar (XLM) Rockets Toward $8 Target as LOAN Protocol Boosts Adoption