Altcoin to Bitcoin Ratio Hits Historic Momentum Low in 2025
- The altcoin-to-Bitcoin ratio hits a support zone last seen before the 2017 and 2020 reversal phases.
- The technical chart shows a descending channel breakout projection signaling a potential market rotation.
- Momentum oscillator crossover may indicate the start of renewed altcoin strength heading into 2026.
The ratio between altcoin market capitalization and Bitcoin has reached its lowest momentum zone ever recorded, according to data from TradingView shared by EtherNasyonaL. The chart tracks the Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 to BTC ratio on a 1-month timeframe, suggesting that altcoins may be approaching a critical turning point after a multi-year downtrend.
Historical Lows Signal Potential Reversal Zone
The chart indicates a prolonged decline stretching from early 2021 through 2025, marked by lower highs within a descending channel. EtherNasyonaL notes that the ratio is now testing a long-term support area dating back to 2019. Historically, this level has coincided with major trend reversals that led to broad altcoin recoveries.
The shaded green support region shown in the chart represents previous accumulation phases when market participants began rotating capital from Bitcoin into smaller-cap assets. During these past periods, similar momentum troughs preceded significant price expansions in the altcoin market.
Beneath the main chart, the analyst displayed a momentum oscillator showing cyclical behavior that aligns with earlier turning points in 2017 and 2020. Each prior crossover between the blue and orange lines corresponded to a shift from Bitcoin dominance toward altcoin strength, hinting that another reversal phase could be near.
Chart Structure Suggests End of Multi-Year Downtrend
Technical analysis of the chart’s structure shows a descending parallel channel containing price movement since the 2021 cycle peak. The ratio has now touched the lower boundary of this channel and bounced slightly upward, suggesting early attempts at recovery. EtherNasyonaL illustrated a projected scenario in which the ratio may break above the channel, retest its boundary, and begin an upward trajectory into 2026.
Moving averages on the chart—drawn as two green curved lines—indicate a flattening slope, a sign that downward momentum could be weakening. In prior cycles, such flattening occurred just before strong market rotations. Traders viewing this chart interpret it as a technical setup signaling a possible start to “Altseason,” a term referring to periods when alternative cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin.
The historical timeline highlights that similar chart patterns in 2017 and 2020 preceded 3×–5× surges in aggregate altcoin market capitalization. The ratio’s proximity to previous cyclical bottoms around 0.011–0.012 BTC further adds weight to the expectation of a rebound if capital flows shift once again toward smaller-cap projects.
Will 2026 Mark a Return to Altcoin Dominance?
The central question facing traders now is whether altcoins can regain dominance amid growing market consolidation around Bitcoin. EtherNasyonaL’s analysis implies that the current structural setup mirrors prior pre-rally conditions seen before major capital rotations.
The indicator crossover at the chart’s bottom has historically foreshadowed upward market cycles, raising speculation that altcoin valuations could rebound over the next 12–18 months. Market watchers note that the confirmation of this trend would likely require multiple monthly closes above the descending channel to validate a sustained breakout.
Community reactions on X reflected cautious optimism, with traders noting the correlation between prolonged accumulation zones and subsequent bull cycles. The shared chart has drawn increasing attention among technical analysts observing the ratio’s compressed volatility, often considered a precursor to large directional moves.
