• Gemini applies for CFTC approval to launch prediction market contracts in finance, sports, and politics.
• The CFTC approval may take months or years, delaying Gemini’s prediction market launch.
• Prediction markets grow as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Coinbase enter the competitive space.

Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange that was started by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, has submitted a request to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to establish a dedicated contract market, according to a report by Bloomberg.

The company applied in May, requesting permission to list prediction-based derivatives on its exchange. With its approval, Gemini intends to provide the contracts that project the outcomes in such areas as politics, sports, and finance.

The relocation places Gemini in competition with industry giants in the prediction market, such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The CFTC has already registered Kalshi, and Polymarket is considering a return to the U.S. market. But the approval process of the CFTC may require several months or even years and may be further halted by the current government shutdown.

Gemini Eyes Prediction Market Launch After IPO Success

Gemini, according to sources close to the company, is eager to launch prediction market contracts soon. The relocation is a larger step in prioritizing the growth of cryptocurrency into conventional financial products. Prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are recording high volumes as the pressure on the markets increases.

Gemini seeks approval months following a successful first public offering (IPO) in September, during which the company raised $425 million. The IPO filing suggested the possibility of launching event contracts that would predict outcomes in economic, financial, and political events and sports. 

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Gemini is also seeking to branch out its products by entering the prediction markets, where it can tap into the large market size that has already shown interest in this category.

Kalshi and Polymarket Drive Growth in the Prediction Market Space

The success of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket that have been widely popular in recent months has promoted the growth of prediction markets. The CFTC has already registered Kalshi, making it a formidable competitor in this space. Meanwhile, Polymarket has been preparing to do a relaunch in the U.S.

The prediction market is also getting penetrated by other finance platforms. Both CME Group and Coinbase have indicated that they plan to venture into this space. Coinbase also has plans to introduce event contracts as part of an overall strategy called Everything Exchange. Robinhood also introduced a prediction market, which offers its users a chance to trade on the result of sporting events.

James Newman, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer of Chiliz, coined the idea of increasing the use of prediction markets and the necessity of maintaining a balance between innovation and responsibility.

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