• Ethereum surged over 50% in July, closing above $3,800, the best monthly performance in three years.
• August has historically been a weak month, except in post-election years, where ETH averages a 63.8% gain.
• Technical indicators suggest weakening momentum; $3,524 remains the key level to watch for bulls.

Ethereum ended July on a high note, climbing past the $3,800 mark and locking in a massive 50% monthly gain. This propels July 2025 to its strongest month in more than three years. The rally pushed ETH into a critical zone, fueling fresh speculation of its path to yet another all-time high.

As Ethereum enters August, history does not look good. The month has historically seen descending price action for ETH. There does, however, exist an exception: years after an election.

Since then, Ethereum has witnessed a very impressive growth of 63.8% on an average basis in August. Even a 30% appreciation this month could send ETH to around an all-time high if history repeats itself.

Also Read: Ethereum Price Dip: Will It Rebound and Break $4,000?

Will Ethereum Break $4K in August or Pull Back?

According to crypto market analyst Benjamin Cowen, Ethereum has reached a moment of destiny. In his judgment, ETH’s next most probable directions are around the $4,000 level.

The ultimate success of this break above the threshold in August could lead to further upside throughout the remainder of the market cycle.

Cowen does propose that if ETH does break above $4K soon, then the pullback later in the month of September may only be a retest of that level and provide support for further upside later on.

But he also outlines the more conservative course. In case ETH does not cross $4,000, the focus would be to maintain it above its bull market support band.

In this case, Ethereum may form a higher low in September, delaying but not halting its direction to a fresh high. Despite the uncertainty, Cowen remains positive on the long term and anticipates fresh highs by year-end.

Short-Term Resistance Halts ETH Rally

Trading at around $3,478 currently, Ethereum struggles to stay over its 20-day EMA of $3,524. This has now become a short-term resistance point.

Each day’s closure below it could be the end of the recent rally. Lower support levels are the 50-day EMA at $3,145 and the 100-day EMA at $2,839. If the selling resumes, these levels could be tested.

Momentum indicators also show warning signs. The Relative Strength Index has decreased to 53.93 from previously overbought levels, suggesting reduced purchase pressure. A fall below 50 would most likely seal bearish sentiment.

Meanwhile, the MACD indicator has finished a bearish crossover. To the extent the MACD line at 195.18 lags behind the signal line at 253.43, and also there exists a negative histogram of -58.25, Ethereum appears ready for consolidation or one more short-term backdown.

Also Read: Ethereum Never Went Down in 10 Years: Vitalik Says It Never Should