• PolyMarket data shows Ethereum’s $5K year-end odds rising to 74%, up 32% from late September.
• ETH price trades at $4,481 after rebounding from the $3,800–$3,900 support zone in late September.
• The chart pattern forms a symmetrical triangle, projecting a breakout move toward the $5,000 resistance level.

As Bitcoin broke the $115K resistance to a new weekly high of $120K, Ethereum, the second leading asset in market cap terms, is also eyeing a new market price. On August 25, ETH unlocked a new ATH of $4953.73, unable to unlock the $5000 level that many anticipated. However, market analysts have hinted at a renewed bull move, which may lead to a rally towards $5K. 

Ethereum Hits 74% Odds of Reaching $5K by Year-End 

PolyMarket data, a gambling platform, has recorded a 74% probability that Ethereum is likely to unlock the $5K target. According to an X post by CryptoGucci, it is seen that as of October 2, the probability stands at 74%, marking a 32% increase from prior levels. The data shows steady gains beginning September 26, when chances were near the 40% range. Through September 27 and 28, the readings moved sideways between 50% and 55% before dipping slightly.

On September 29, the line steadied near 55% before another decline took it closer to 50%. September 30 displayed mixed movement with fluctuations, but maintained levels largely above 50%. On October 1, the readings jumped from the mid-50% range to more than 65% by late session. The rise extended into October 2, with probabilities climbing past 70% and closing near the 75% mark.

The chart confirms a strong upward trend from late September lows near 40% to early October highs. Across the seven-day period, Ethereum’s $5,000 year-end target probability gained over 30 percentage points in momentum. The latest value at 74% represents the strongest reading since tracking began in late September.

Does This Price Structure Validate a Move Towards $5K?

As many people expect a new ATH, an observation by Ash Crypto reveals that Ethereum’s daily chart showAs the price trading at $4,481 after gaining +3.00% in the latest session. The current candle reflects a rebound that began after retesting the $3,800–$3,900 support zone in late September.  From that level, Ethereum reversed strongly and advanced through resistance, confirming higher lows inside the drawn triangular structure.

The chart indicates price movement compressing within converging trendlines since August, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern.  Recent price action shows Ethereum breaking upward from this formation, pushing through $4,400 and now holding above $4,480. The structure projects a continuation, marking $5,000 as the next target following the breakout from the structure. Price levels between $4,350 and $4,500 have acted as current resistance during early October trading sessions.  

Earlier candles in September show repeated rejections near the descending trendline drawn from August highs around $4,800. The retest and rebound above $3,800 confirmed the base before Ethereum advanced back into the triangle’s upper range.  The projected trajectory on the chart points toward a climb, stretching toward the $5,000 level in the near term.  This projection from the $4,481 trading level outlines the next marked stop at $5,000 as illustrated.