• Bitcoin defended the short-term holder cost basis at $111.6k and rebounded toward $118.8k.
• ETF inflows and easing long-term holder selling are stabilizing the market structure.
• Options reset after record expiry points to cautious Q4 upside.

Bitcoin’s price action continues to revolve around the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, now standing at $111.6k. After dropping below this level following the Federal Reserve’s recent policy meeting, Bitcoin found strong buying support and quickly bounced back toward $118.8k.

According to Glassnode, this threshold has acted as a floor on five separate occasions since May 2025, highlighting its importance as a dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment. Each time the level is defended, market conviction strengthens.

However, it also faces challenges as profit-takers and holders near $114k to $118k create resistance. A firm close above $118k would show demand is strong enough to absorb supply from recent buyers aiming to exit at breakeven.

At the same time, the Short-Term Holder Realized Value ratio has been trending lower since May. This signals fading speculative excess and suggests that markets may be entering an accumulation phase, where investors step back before making bigger commitments.

Long-Term Bitcoin Selling Slows After Months of Pressure

While the short-term holders keep leading the show, longer-term trends are also changing. Long-term holders (LTHs) had been distributing on upswings for months as a source of constant supply pressure.

Upcoming data now reveals this distribution easing up, with the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change shifting towards neutrality. It might suggest profit-taking easing up as well.

Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs resurface as a levelling influence. Following a series of outflows over several weeks, inflows have been back in evidence, evidencing the ongoing existence of institutional appetite despite recent market fluctuations.

In tandem with diminished LTH selling, consistent ETF inflows might give the market a more solid base upon which to operate over the coming weeks.

Sentiment has cooled down, though. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has moved back into neutral and fearful positions after being in months-long green-driven optimism. It reflects investors being cautious as much as a healthier reset that will underpin a more solid base.

Open Interest Rebuilds as Traders Eye Q4 Upside

The options marketplace has reset as well. After seeing the largest expiry on record, open interest dropped sharply and bottomed out, slowly building back up into Q4. Volatility on shorter periods has softened up slightly, yet longer-date contracts still prove more expensive, indicative of caution that persists.

Skew has come closer to neutral, with options traders taking a more interest in call options around $136k–$145k, as they sell puts to set up for a stable upside into year-end. The configuration here is that although bets on extremes are ruled out, markets are tentatively spiking towards seasonal gains common in the fourth quarter.

Also Read: Bitcoin (BTC) Eyes $130,000 as October Surge Pushes Price Above $117,500