• CryptoQuant’s Analyst sees Bitcoin in equilibrium, with MVRV data signaling an upside toward $130,000.
• Bitcoin rises above $119,000, with resistance at $120,000 and a breakout may target $130,000.
• Whale demand, ETF inflows and historical seasonality patterns boost Bitcoin’s Q4 2025 rally outlook.

Bitcoin is currently trading above $119,000 as the fourth quarter of 2025 begins. Its 24-hour range was between $116,251 and $119,850 which is 4.65% below its all-time high of $124,457 reached in August.

Analysts point out $120,000 as the immediate level to watch. If Bitcoin closes above that level, it may try to retest the August peak around $124,500. 

A firmer breakout would put the $130,000 – $132,000 zone into focus, an area where short-term holders may lock in profits. On the downside, support is at $116,000 to $118,000 with deeper support around $110,000 to $114,000.

Bitcoin on-chain analysis suggests growth potential to $130K

According to On-chain data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is “in equilibrium” in the Short-Term Holder MVRV corridor, which is bullish for the short term. Analyst Axel Adler Jr points out the +1σ boundary around $130,000, which would serve as a profit-taking zone for short-term investors.

The analyst stated that if current momentum persists, “a move toward $130K appears realistic.” 

In addition, CryptoQuant’s Advanced Sentiment Index reflects this trend, with an index of 79% compared to the 30-day average of 70%, which indicates a more bullish risk appetite.

Adler further said that since early 2024, Bitcoin has consistently traded above its realized-price baseline with brief dips being quickly recovered. This trend also suggests that buyers are still defending lower levels which has maintained a bullish cycle structure.

Bitcoin Q4 2025 outlook strengthened by demand and seasonal trends

CryptoQuant cites that spot demand has been increasing since July 2025 at a rate of over 62,000 BTC per month. The firm suggests that this kind of growth has historically preceded rallies in the fourth quarter, as in 2020, 2021 and 2024. Now entering Q4 2025, the firm believes demand will remain promising enough to fuel another upward trend.

Whale accumulation is also more robust than in previous cycles. Holding activity is growing at a pace of 331,000 BTC per annum (compared to 255,000 BTC for Q4 2024). US-listed ETFs purchased 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024, up 71% year-over-year from the previous quarter, and could see similar inflows in Q4 2025, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said.

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Bitcoin price targets from $139K to $200K cited by analysts

Market analyst Ali, on the other hand, cites the MVRV pricing bands on Glassnode as evidence that BTC could reach $139,000 if it remains above $117,000. 

Historical seasonality adds support to the bullish case. CoinGlass data further indicates BTC has averaged 20% returns in October, 46% in November and 4% in December. 

Furthermore, the formation of a golden cross pattern has led some technical analysts to predict a target of $150,000 in the fourth quarter. In addition, institutional forecasts, including those from Bitwise, Standard Chartered and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, predict that Bitcoin may reach $200,000 by 2025.

Also Read: Bitcoin Correlation With Gold Signals Strong Upside for Q4