• Crypto market expert predicts the biggest threat to crypto is coming back. 
• This is expected to be a US government shutdown on January 31, 2026.
• The chances of a shutdown are at possibility of 80%.

As crypto prices continue to struggle, some experts believe harder times are on the horizon as one crypto market expert predicts the biggest threat to crypto coming back as a US government shutdown. In fact, this expectation is said to likely happen on January 31, 2026, and the likelihood seems to be at an 80% possibility. Why does the expert believe this will happen? Let’s have a closer look. 

Crypto Market Expert Predicts the Biggest Threat to Crypto 

According to Crypto Rover, the risk of a US government shutdown is rapidly escalating, with an 80% probability of a funding lapse by January 31. This scale shot up from 10-15% just a day earlier. The sudden shift reflects intensifying political deadlock in Washington and has raised concerns about potential spillover effects across financial markets, particularly in the crypto sector.

The standoff centres on disagreements over federal spending priorities. Democrats have indicated they will oppose the current funding bill unless key provisions related to the Department of Homeland Security are removed, while Republicans have shown little willingness to compromise. With neither side signalling a breakthrough, the prospect of a shutdown is increasingly viewed as a realistic scenario rather than a remote risk.

As we can see from the post above, the post goes on to explain the matter in detail. For instance, complicating the situation is the recent increase in the US debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion. While the move was intended to prevent immediate fiscal crises, it has also given lawmakers greater room to prolong negotiations without triggering an instant breakdown in government operations. 

US Government Shutdown Could Return

Paradoxically, this flexibility may make a shutdown more likely, as political pressure to reach a quick agreement is reduced. For crypto markets, in particular, the primary threat is liquidity. When a shutdown begins, the US Treasury typically rebuilds its Treasury General Account (TGA), effectively pulling cash out of financial markets. This process reduces the amount of available liquidity circulating in the financial system, which can weigh heavily on risk assets.

What’s more, the current environment is said to be even more vulnerable than similar prior events. Liquidity conditions are already strained, investor confidence remains fragile, and institutional capital has largely gravitated toward equities and gold. At the same time, market volatility is elevated, and crypto prices are reacting strongly to relatively small capital flows. Analysts warn that a shutdown-driven liquidity drain could amplify these pressures, triggering disproportionate declines in digital assets.