On-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has risen to approximately 16.3 million BTC, approaching the all-time high of 16.4 million set in January 2024. The metric, which tracks wallets that have held bitcoin for at least 155 days, has increased by more than 2 million coins since October 2025, including a 200,000 BTC rise in the past month alone. The surge in long-term accumulation breaks a multi-year downtrend that began during the 2024-2025 bull market distribution phase.

What the Long-Term Holder Data Shows

Long-term holders now control approximately 16.3 million of the 19.86 million bitcoin currently in circulation, representing roughly 82 percent of the total mined supply. According to Bitwise’s European research division, which compiled the data from multiple on-chain analytics providers, this level of long-term holder concentration has only been exceeded once in Bitcoin’s history. That previous peak occurred in January 2024, shortly before the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, when anticipation of institutional inflows prompted holders to retain their positions.

The accumulation pattern over the past seven months tells a directional story. From the October 2025 cycle high above 126,000 dollars, bitcoin’s price has declined into the 76,000 to 80,000 dollar range. During this same period, long-term holder supply increased from 14.12 million BTC to 16.3 million BTC. This inverse relationship between price and long-term holding is consistent with historical Bitcoin market cycles, where experienced holders accumulate during periods of price weakness and distribute during parabolic advances.

ETF Outflows Contrast With On-Chain Accumulation

The on-chain accumulation trend stands in contrast to recent exchange-traded product flows. Bitcoin ETPs recorded approximately 1.03 billion dollars in net outflows during the most recent weekly reporting period, with broader crypto ETP outflows totaling 1.23 billion dollars. Ethereum products saw 258.7 million dollars in withdrawals. The divergence suggests that different investor cohorts are responding to market conditions in opposing ways, with institutional ETF holders reducing exposure while longer-duration on-chain holders increase theirs.

Analysts note that the short-term holder cost basis currently sits at approximately 78,300 dollars, while the 200-day moving average stands at 81,800 dollars. Bitcoin’s current trading range below both levels places it in a zone where historically, long-term holders have been most aggressive in adding to their positions. The True Market Mean, a weighted average that accounts for holder behavior, sits at approximately 78,600 dollars, effectively coinciding with the current price range.

Historical Pattern Suggests Potential Supply Squeeze

If long-term holder supply continues its current trajectory, it could surpass the January 2024 record within weeks. Such an outcome would reduce the liquid and freely tradeable bitcoin supply to historically low levels, a condition that has preceded significant price appreciation in prior cycles. The dynamic is straightforward: when a larger share of the supply moves into long-term storage, the available float for trading shrinks, and any resurgence in demand can produce outsized price effects.

On-chain researchers at multiple analytics firms have noted that the current accumulation pattern resembles late-stage bear market behavior more closely than it does early bull market positioning. The redistribution from short-term to long-term holders typically completes before a new upward cycle begins, suggesting that the market may be approaching an inflection point even as sentiment indicators remain depressed.

Risks and Uncertainties

The long-term holder metric, while informative, has limitations. Wallets associated with lost coins, exchange cold storage, and custodial services can distort the signal. Not all coins classified as long-term holdings represent deliberate accumulation; some may simply be inaccessible or operationally dormant. Additionally, the 155-day threshold is an arbitrary cutoff that may not capture the full spectrum of holder conviction levels.

Macro headwinds also persist. Rising interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and persistent inflation have created an environment where risk assets face structural selling pressure. A continued deterioration in broader financial markets could force even committed long-term holders to liquidate positions. The relationship between on-chain accumulation and future price performance, while historically consistent, is not guaranteed to repeat under current market conditions.

About XT Exchange

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